Winter Fun And Games

The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available on the web, and on iTunes:

Looks like for the next few weeks I will be going to bed at my usual time of 12:05 a.m…. with great concern of a forecast bust when I wake up at the usual time of 4:52 a.m. I have been doing the weather on TV since 1978; I have had more than my share of those and it is not fun. And yes, I know I need more sleep. Like J.B… you have to learn to take good naps during the day when you can. But, just not while you are behind the wheel or on TV.

Before I write the morning discussion, let me clearly say this is a pattern fraught with danger, meaning there will be fast and furious changes in our forecast. I am not trying to generate more blog traffic (it is sky high these days anyway, thanks so much for reading!), but I do encourage you to check in often.

THREAT NUMBER ONE: Lots of players on the field for tonight and tomorrow morning. One big player is the wedge, or cold air damming. The coldest air in North America is now over Eastern Canada and New England. This air is dense, and will slide down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. That colder air will move down through the Carolinas and Georgia, possibly reaching East Alabama. Player number two is the wave in the Pineapple Express, the southern jet stream, over Texas. That wave will bring the risk of some precipitation to Alabama between about midnight tonight and 9:00 a.m. tomorrow.

The mid levels are very dry, and I am not all that concerned for the western half of the state. However, East Alabama might have some problems. Even there the precipitation should be light, and this won’t be a big ticket event, but it might be enough to bring some bridge icing as the infrastructure has chilled greatly in the past 36 hours. If the precipitation falls as sleet, there won’t be any real big issues. But, if we have freezing rain, then bridge icing is a real possibility. The greatest chance of that will be in the general corridor from Roanoke to Anniston and up to Centre. I will mention a wintry mix for this part of the state for late tonight and tomorrow morning.

To the east, the ice threat will be more significant over North Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. Our friends in Atlanta might have icy bridges tomorrow; that is always fun.

Looks like that wave will well to the east by tomorrow afternoon, and now it appears Friday will be dry but cold.

THREAT NUMBER TWO: Another potent winter storm forms over Texas on Saturday. This is a good looking wave that has potential to bring lots of snow and some ice to Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas over the weekend. Here in Alabama, I believe that there will be enough warm air advection for plain ole rain on Sunday when the wave arrives here. But, over the far northern part of the state, around the Tennessee Valley, it will be a close call. And, on the back side of the wave there is some risk of the rain changing over to snow briefly over the northern part of the state Sunday night or early Monday. For now seems like the greatest potential for significant snow and ice problems will remain a little west and north of here.

THREAT NUMBER THREE: This might be the one that brings the most significant threat of snow or ice yet to Alabama, and that comes around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Needless to say, I don’t even want to go here yet since we will have a hard time with weather in the short term. We will cross this bridge in a few days and take a closer look.

LONG RANGE: The cold and unsettled pattern should remain locked even into February. Remember, there is a vast snow and ice pack over much of mid-America, which will also play a role in keeping us cold down here. This will be a winter to remember for much of the United States.

WEATHER PARTY: Join us over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com… a collection of weather related stories gathered by YOU. If you register, you can submit weather related news stories, and vote on them to determine what shows up on the main page. A pretty cool site; always something interesting to read over there.

STORM ALERT 2007: We kick off our annual weather tour across the state on February 1 in Tuscaloosa at Shelton State Community College… we will post more details about the tour here soon. This is always one of our favorite events of the year in the weather office. Also, you can meet the newest member of our team, Ashley Brand, who will be joining us late this month. John Oldshue is stepping back from his TV duties for a bit, but he is part of The Weather Company, which partners with ABC 33/40 for forecast support. J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray are part of The Weather Company team, which is a vital part of our operation. So, Oldshue isn’t going away, and I am sure he will show up on TV from time to time when the big events happen.

I will be speaking today at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover; then back in the office by early afternoon. I will have the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30. Stay warm!

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