Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Saturday Afternoon Notebook

| August 4, 2012 @ 4:27 pm

…Showers and thunderstorms are most numerous this afternoon over Northwest Alabama into the Tennessee Valley, being influenced by an upper level disturbance that is passing by to the north. The NWS Huntsville just issued a flash flood warning for parts of Lauderdale County.

…Showers and a few storms are plentiful near the Alabama/Georgia border, where moisture levels are higher and there is a weak surface trough.

…The two areas are converging, but the activity should begin to weaken as it “zips” together from the northeast to the southwest, as it encounters less unstable and drier air near I-59. Everything will go downhill as we lose the heating of the day and die out after sunset.

…Nothing organized in sight for tomorrow. An approaching front may help to focus storm development some, but still, activity tomorrow will be scattered and hit or miss.

…Ernesto is stronger (top winds 60 mph). It is south of the Dominican Republic and moving quickly to the west. Forecast thinking hasn’t changed, although the official track forecast has slowed a bit. Still expect it to become a hurricane over the western Caribbean. It should cross the Yucatan Wednesday night and emerge into the southern Gulf Thursday. Only the GFDL and HWRF models carry it northward over the Gulf. The global models are tend to believe it will stay further south. Still believe Ernesto poses no threat to the northern Gulf Coast. But we will be watching.

…Florence continues to confound the forecasters, gaining strength against the odds in the far eastern Atlantic.

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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