Active Weather Day Friday

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Looks like some dangerous weather conditions will set up west of Alabama today and tomorrow, with a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes possible. The primary threat today will come over Texas and Oklahoma; shifting east tomorrow into Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, and parts of West Tennessee and West Mississippi. Convective parameters suggest the possibility of a few violent, long track tornadoes in this region, and we will watch developments with great interest.

Here in Alabama, our weather will remain relatively quiet through tomorrow with only isolated showers. Morning clouds will give way to some afternoon sunshine on both days; we will reach the upper 70s today, with low 80s likely tomorrow.

FRIDAY: The big batch of severe storms will slowly move into Alabama late Thursday night or during the pre-dawn hours Friday with a weakening trend. This activity should lay down some kind of low level boundary for new storms to fire during the day Friday, and these storms should be strong to severe. The wind fields and forecast instability suggest all modes of severe weather will be possible, much like last Friday. SBCAPE values will be in the 1,000 to 1,500 j/kg range, with 0 to 3 km helicity values of over 200 m2/s2. LCL heights will be low as well. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for Friday.

Looks like rain totals of around one inch can be expected Friday and Friday night.

APRIL CHILL: Much cooler air invades Alabama and the Deep South over the weekend as a deep, long wave trough sets up over the eastern U.S. Highs will drop into the 60s on Saturday; we will be in a dry slot, so some sun is possible, but low clouds will wrap back into the state by Saturday evening. Some lingering light rain or drizzle is possible Saturday morning.

The GFS continues to trend colder for Sunday… we might have a hard time getting out of the 40s north of Birmingham with some scattered light rain. Low level thickness values even hint at the chance of a few snow flakes over the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama by Sunday night and early Monday.

The GFS is now printing 34 for Birmingham Monday morning, but with a cloud cover frost is not expected to be a problem.

The issue will come Tuesday morning… with a clear sky and a light wind, frost seems likely, and now the GFS is showing a low of 33 at Birmingham. Needless to say, this means many of the colder valleys will see a freeze. Growers will need to keep a close eye on temperature forecasts in coming days, but again at this point it looks like Tuesday will be the coldest morning. But, some frost is certainly possible Wednesday morning as well.

A warming trend will begin Wednesday afternoon.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS still suggests a ridge building across the Deep South later in April, which will mean warmer and drier conditions if that trend is correct.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

A special thank you to Pastor Rick Cooper and all of my friends at Open Door Church for their hospitality last night; it was a special night for everyone. And, thanks to Bill Castle, Tracy Bynum, and everyone in the ABC 33/40 news department for their help in putting the special together that aired last night about the 10th anniversary of the April 8, 1998 F5 tornado. If you missed the show, I hope our web guys can get it up on the ABC 33/40 site later today.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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