Strong Storms Tomorrow

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In the words of J.B. Elliott, we have a few “illegal” raindrops over North Alabama this morning, mainly over the Tennessee Valley. The impulse responsible for those is moving east, and most of Alabama will be dry today with a partly sunny sky and a high in the mid 80s. If we reach our forecast high of 85 today, it will be our warmest day so far in 2008.

TO THE WEST: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather today for areas west of Alabama, including places like Dallas, Shreveport, Tulsa, and Little Rock. Strong to severe storms are likely in this region today in advance of the upper low moving eastward from West Texas.

STORMY THURSDAY FOR ALABAMA: SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for a good part of Alabama tomorrow as the system begins to impact our state. Still looks like the prime window for severe storms will be from about 12:00 noon until 10:00 p.m., and the greatest chance of isolated tornadoes will come during the afternoon hours. While the upper short wave will be slowly weakening with time, model instability and shear parameters still look pretty impressive.

The NAM shows a peak surface based CAPE here at 1341 j/kg tomorrow, but if we can get some good intervals of sunshine during the morning that value will be pushed even higher. The 0 to 3 km helicity values will be in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range through the afternoon, so all modes of severe weather will be likely. The activity should evolve into a squall line tomorrow evening as it moves into Georgia.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: While we can’t completely rule out a shower somewhere around here Friday and Saturday, I believe these two days will be dry and warm with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should be well into the 80s. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. There could be some strong storms involved; we will have a much better idea of the severe weather threat (if any) once tomorrow’s system is out of here.

NEXT WEEK: Another dynamic system rolls in here Wednesday of next week with another round of showers and strong storms. Much cooler air moves into the state Thursday and Friday of next week; looks like we will be considerably below average for mid-May at that time.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I will be speaking to the senior adults today at East Lake United Methodist Church… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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