Active Weather Day Ahead

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The chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will be the weather headline for Alabama today. Things are relatively quiet this morning, but storms will likely fire up later today as the air becomes unstable.

Seems like the prime severe weather window today will be from about 12:00 noon until 7:00 p.m.

The upper trough supporting the thunderstorms is in the process of slowly weakening, but there will still be sufficient support for some severe weather. For you weather geeks, here are some projected severe weather parameters for Birmingham this afternoon:

Surface based CAPE: 1751 j/kg
0 to 3km SRH: 384 m2/s2
0 to 1 km EHI: 1.90
Significant tornado parameter: 1.98
Craven/Brooks severe weather index: 30,372

If we get some decent breaks in the clouds this morning, those CAPE values could exceed 2,000, and the storms could be more explosive.

Seems like all modes of severe weather will be possible; the storms should be initially cellular, and will have the potential for rotating updrafts and isolated tornadoes. Large hail and damaging wind is also possible, and the storms should evolve into a squall line that will move east into Georgia tonight.

The 00Z NAM is printing 0.85″ with this event today, and that sounds good to me.

We will keep updates flowing on the blog today, so stay tuned…

TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: Looks like the warmest weather so far this year on these two days, with afternoon highs in the 85 to 90 degree range. This means the air will be unstable, and a few isolated afternoon storms could fire up. In fact, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in place for the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama tomorrow afternoon for this possibility. But, there is little upper support, and a large percentage of these two days will be dry. Just keep in mind any afternoon storm that forms could pack a punch.

SUNDAY: This looks like another day with potential for strong to severe storms. SPC has much of Alabama in a severe weather risk, and projected wind profiles once again suggest all modes of severe weather will be possible. We will focus more on Sunday after today’s system is out of here.

NEXT WEEK: The weather will be dry and a little cooler Monday and Tuesday. The 00Z GFS now suggests the big mid-week weather system will hold off until Thursday… if the 12Z run confirms that trend, we will make the adjustment in the forecast. Looks like there is a decent chance the rain will be out of here by the following weekend, but that is all in voodoo land.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

Weather permitting, I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video this afternoon; if not the next one will be up by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Stay tuned to the blog for the latest weather developments today as the great one, J.B. Elliott, eyes the big radar screen and Skywatcher conference!

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