Weather Pattern Active

| February 2, 2013 @ 7:43 am

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Looks like the weather pattern for the next couple of weeks is going to be active. By the term “active,” I mean that we will see some sort of weather change every couple of days.

For today, much of Central Alabama awoke to sunshine, but a fast moving disturbance in the upper flow will bring clouds across the northern half of Alabama by mid to late morning with a winter weather advisory in effect until noon for the northwestern counties of Alabama. Freezing rain and sleet are expected in that area as well as into extreme northern Mississippi, parts of Middle and West Tennessee, and points northeastward to Southwest Pennsylvania. Temperatures should recover fairly quickly for Alabama with the wintery precipitation threat ending by noon. Outside of the Tennessee River Valley, precipitation is likely to be very light, mostly sprinkles, with a fairly dry atmosphere in place over Central and South Alabama. Rainfall amounts totaling a few hundredths of an inch.

The upper pattern goes northwesterly Sunday so expect another coolish day with lows around freezing and highs in the lower/mid 50s. By Monday, the pattern flattens somewhat with a quick warm up, but another fast moving upper short wave promises some light rain for Monday night and into Tuesday. The fast moving flow, however, means a fairly short period of rain with improving conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Yet another short wave coming across northern Mexico on Wednesday brings yet another round of wetness for us on Thursday as it travels quickly by. The models are somewhat conflicted on the strength and position of this system. The GFS is more aggressive on the strength of the surface low and resulting precipitation pattern. The European does not project nearly as strong a low with a smaller precipitation field.

The threat for rain should end early Friday opening the way for a flatter pattern and a nice Saturday as highs climb into the lower 60s. Again, models disagree on the next round of rain with the European wetter for Saturday than the GFS.

But the fast moving flow continues into voodoo country with the potential for rain again on Sunday, Wednesday, and Friday. By the Friday the 15th the pattern goes much colder once again with a fairly deep trough over the eastern half of the country opening the freezer door. But then this is way into voodoo country, so we won’t be counting on this look in the next computer run.

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I anticipate posting the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Sunday morning. You can catch my forecast on ABC 3340 news at 6 and 10 pm this evening. Have a blessed day and Godspeed.


Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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