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Dry Today; Rain Returns Thursday Night

| February 19, 2013 @ 5:16 am

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RADAR CHECK: The overnight rain is exiting Alabama quickly early this morning. As I write this around 4:45 a.m. the rain is already over for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, and clearing will progress nicely in the wake of the rain. Today will be mostly sunny and cool with a high in the mid to upper 50s.

COLDER TONIGHT: Temperatures will drop quickly tonight with a clear sky, and most communities will be in the 25-29 degree range early tomorrow. Then, the day tomorrow will be sunny but cool with a high between 47 and 50 degrees.

MORE RAIN: An active pattern continues across the continental U.S… and we will have several opportunities for rain over the latter half of the week into the weekend and early next week. Here is a breakdown on the timing…

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: Severe storms are possible during the day Thursday west of Alabama ahead of a vigorous short wave over the middle of the nation; SPC has all of Louisiana and much of Mississippi in a “slight risk” Thursday, with an enhancement (30 percent probabilities) over Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi. We still believe the storms will weaken as they move into Alabama Thursday night with little risk of organized severe weather here due to the lack of surface based instability. Seems like the main window for rain will come from about 8:00 p.m. Thursday through 8:00 a.m. Friday. Rain amounts of one-half to one inch are likely. A decent part of the day Friday should be rain-free as the surface boundary slips just south of here, and the day should be pretty mild with a high in the upper 60s.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: A wave of low pressure should form along the stalled front, bringing the front northward along with another batch of rain and storms to this part of the state Friday night into at least part of the day Saturday. We will have to watch for potential for a few strong storms with this impulse since the air will be somewhat unstable, but it is not a classic severe weather setup. The main window for rain with this event will begin around 7:00 p.m. Friday; beyond that it is very debatable when the rain stops. Most GFS runs have suggested the rain will end by mid-morning Saturday, but we note the 00Z GFS keeps the rain going through much of the day Saturday. We will continue to lean toward the rain ending Saturday morning in our forecast.

Sunday should be dry and mild… a partly sunny sky along with a high in the upper 60s.

MONDAY: Yet another trough will bring a chance of showers and storms to Alabama early next week. The 00Z GFS was mysteriously dry; based on the projected moisture and lift we figure there is a pretty decent decent risk of geting wet Monday, and maybe some risk of strong storms. Way too early to be specific.

Drier air returns Tuesday of next week.

VOODOO LAND: The GFS has trended much colder around the first few days of March; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

STORM ALERT 2013 IN CLANTON THURSDAY NIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…

February 21 Clanton – Jeff State Performing Arts Center
February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School

All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs this morning at Piedmont Elementary and Middle School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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