One More Dry Day

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Tonight will be a refreshing one for Alabama; most communities will be in the upper 40s by daybreak as dry, continental air remains in place. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and a little warmer as we climb into the 77 to 80 degree range by afternoon.

STORMS RETURN: The 12Z runs of the GFS and the NAM suggest that much of the day will be dry Wednesday, with the main risk of showers and storms coming in here by late Wednesday night and Thursday. This scenario looks pretty good to me; I sure think Thursday will be the target day for the best coverage of showers and storms.

SPC has all of Alabama in a severe weather risk on Thursday; models are showing surface based CAPE values in the 1500 to 2000 j/kg range for much of the state, with 0 to 3 km helicity values in the 150 to 200 m2/s2 range. This would certainly support severe thunderstorms, and maybe even a few rotating updrafts, meaning a risk of isolated tornadoes.

The rain should be beneficial; most of Alabama has a very good chance of seeing two inches of rain during the latter half of the week. Some flash flooding issues are not out of the question.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 12Z models shift the best chance of rain and storms down into South Alabama by Friday, and the weekend looks dry with pleasant temperatures. Looks like afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday in the 75 to 80 degree range… a great weekend for the Regions Charity Golf Classic out at Ross Bridge.

VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS shifts the storm track well to the north of Alabama, and on this run the May 24-25 system passes well to the north of Alabama. By May 28, the pattern looks like summertime with warm and muggy conditions here, and the jet stream well to the north.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record this week’s show tomorrow night; Bill Read, the new director of the National Hurricane Center will be our guest.

I enjoyed speaking to the kids at Double Springs Elementary School today… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The school is open despite damage to their building from a downburst over the weekend; most of the damage was to the roof over the lunchroom kitchen. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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