Warm Weekend; Strong Storms Monday

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HEADED FOR THE 70s: It is another cold mid-March morning across Alabama; Gadsden is below freezing at daybreak (30 degrees); many other locations are in the mid to upper 30s. But, the dry air will heat very effectively, and most communities will reach the low to mid 70s this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

Not much change tomorrow as we kick off the weekend. Lots of sun with a high in the mid 70s. Doesn’t get much better in mid-March. Then, on Sunday, we will see some increase in clouds, but the weather stays dry, and we should go back into the mid 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Any showers Sunday across the Southeast U.S. will remain well to the north, generally north of I-40.

STRONG STORMS MONDAY: SPC has introduced a risk of severe weather Monday for about the northern third of Alabama, northward through Tennessee and Kentucky. One thing is for sure… the air will be very unstable through the afternoon and evening hours, with a high in the upper 70s and surface dewpoints headed for the mid 60s. The surface based CAPE will be higher than 1,500 j/kg, with a lifted index below -5. The big question is the dynamic support; the short wave will be pretty far to the north, but still we are seeing bulk shear values that will support organized strong to severe storms at least for the northern half of Alabama.

The main window for strong to severe storms Monday will come from about 2:00 p.m. until 11:00 p.m. The main risk will come from hail and gusty winds, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, especially north of U.S. 278. We will keep a close eye on parameters over the weekend.

Drier and cooler air moves into the state Tuesday as the high drops into the upper 50s with a cool north breeze.

The GFS suggests the next big rain event will come toward the end of the week, or around Saturday March 23.

VOODOO LAND: The NAO wants to spike negative later this month, and the operational GFS (00Z run) shows a big shot of colder air moving in here in the March 24-27 time frame, that would easily get us below freezing on a morning or two. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I have weather programs today at Pinson Elementary, and South Shades Crest Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather