Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Unsettled Weather for Easter Weekend

| March 30, 2013 @ 7:29 am

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

It appears likely that our weather will be somewhat unsettled for Easter weekend with much of the rain expected to come later today and Sunday. Based on current data, rain and showers should be ending Monday morning with some clouds sticking around. And that’s no joke!!

A fairly strong short wave will be moving across the Southeast US today. By 1 pm, the short wave should be about to cross the Mississippi River. This means that we may see some isolated showers this morning and into the early afternoon, but then a substantial rain area should move into Central Alabama this evening. Once the rain arrives, we should see rain for several hours through the early morning hours of Easter. Easter morning will be cloudy with a reduction in showers but some isolated showers and light rain still possible.

Another short wave moves in quickly behind the first one increasing the likelihood of rain and showers, perhaps some thunder, too, into the late afternoon and evening hours of Easter. That short wave moves quickly by, so by early Monday morning we should see an end to the rain, but clouds are likely to stick around. Rainfall amounts for the event should be between three quarters of an inch and about an inch and a quarter.

We cool off a little on Tuesday as the upper flow goes northwesterly. But the pattern is very progressive, so the dry weather won’t last long. By Wednesday another trough will be approaching us from the west. Confidence in this portion of the forecast is only moderate because of significant differences in the GFS and ECMWF. Wednesday the two models start off in close agreement, but that changes Thursday. The ECMWF positions a surface low over Mississippi while the GFS takes a surface low across the Orlando area of the Florida Peninsula. So under the ECMWF we are very wet, but with the GFS we would see only a few scattered showers. The models come back together on Friday as both dry us out. I’m inclined to go closer to the ECMWF since the GFS does seem pretty far south with the surface low. So for now the forecast includes a chance for rain on Thursday with showers ending by Friday morning.

A nearly zonal upper flow along with high pressure at the surface promises to bring a dry weekend for the first weekend of April. That would be very welcomed especially if you have any plans to take in the events going on with the Honda Indy Grand Prix at Barber Motorsports Park.

Once again there are substantial changes in voodoo country. Yesterday the long range forecast suggested two fast moving systems for week 2. Today, there is only one system on the board coming into the picture on April 12th. And that system looks pretty strong with potential for severe weather. And the GFS has a big ridge in place by the end of the period as we head into April 15th, tax day! Not sure I buy the big ridge, however, since the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to show a negative tendency which is more suggestive of colder conditions. But it is voodoo afterall!!

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Enjoy the day before the rain arrives. I anticipate posting the next Weather Xtreme Video on Easter morning by about 8 am or so. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

Comments are closed.