Warmer Today; Moisture Levels Rise Tomorrow

| April 30, 2013 @ 5:42 am

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DRY AND WARMER TODAY: We have a few fog issues this morning, mainly over Southwest Alabama… once the fog burns off the day looks good for the northern half of the state; the sky will be partly to mostly sunny with a high in the low 80 this afternoon. Any showers should be confined to the southern counties of the state, and even there they will be pretty widely spaced.

REST OF THE WEEK: A complex pattern will evolve over the U.S. with a rex block setting up involving a deep, cold core upper low somewhere west of Alabama. In the short term, moist air will move northward, and we will need to mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms around here tomorrow and Thursday. The best chance of a shower or storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the most widespread rain will come over the southern half of the state. Temperatures will trend downward slightly due to the clouds and showers, but some spots could still manage 80 degree warmth tomorrow where the sun is out for a while. Highs on Thursday should be generally in the 70s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS and the ECMWF, the two primary global models, are not in good agreement. The GFS has the upper low Saturday near Fort Smith, Arkansas, while the Euro has it west of Minneapolis, Minnesota. The location of the ULL, of course, will determine our weekend weather. For now we will ride with the GFS idea.

Our forecast will reflect periods of rain Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with a cooling trend. The high Friday will be in the low 70s… but on Saturday the GFS is printing a high of only 65 degrees for Birmingham. Not sure we make it out of the 60s Sunday, but if we can see a few decent intervals of sun, low 70s are possible Sunday afternoon.

Understand there will be some good breaks in the rain, and we don’t expect any severe weather, and probably not much thunder. But, once again we will be dodging raindrops this weekend. The GFS does hint at a dry slot moving into West Alabama Sunday, pushing the best chance of showers over to the eastern side of the state. But, even over West Alabama scattered showers could form late Sunday afternoon due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low.

I can almost promise there will be some forecast adjustments as get closer to the weekend, so stay tuned.

TALLADEGA: With some rain possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, rain delays are possible, if not likely, but I do think they will be able to get the qualifying and races in over the weekend. You will just have to be patient. We project a high around 72 Friday, 65 Saturday, and 69 Sunday. Looks like lows will be mostly in the 50s, but should be upper low come closer, we might see 40s early Sunday morning. We will be able to be much more specific about the rain times/amounts as we get closer to the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: Model madness rules… on Monday the GFS has the upper low near Chattanooga, while the Euro has it over Hudson Bay (Canada). Should the GFS be correct, showers could linger into early next week with temperatures remaining below average. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at Hokes Bluff Elementary School…. be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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