Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Rain Chances Slowly Rise In Coming Days

| April 30, 2013 @ 3:31 pm

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THIS AFTERNOON: The radar is quiet over the northern half of Alabama as expected this afternoon; temperatures are generally in the 78-82 degree range. We do note a few showers and storms over far South Alabama… including a few strong storms over Mobile, Baldwin, and Escambia counties.

REST OF THE WEEK: Model clarity is a little better, but it is still a rather tricky forecast as we approach the weekend as a big rex block develops over North America. Let’s break it down on a day by day basis….

TOMORROW: No doubt we might see a shower or two around here tomorrow afternoon, but the showers should be pretty widely spaced, and the most organized showers and storms should be over Southwest Alabama, close to an upper disturbance over Louisiana. The high around here will be in the 77-80 degree range with a few intervals of sunshine during the day.

THURSDAY: The deeper moisture will move northward, and showers and storms in our part of the state should become more numerous. Still, it won’t rain all day, and we might see a few peeks of sunshine. The high will drop into the mid 70s due to clouds and showers.

FRIDAY: The upper system over Louisiana will fizzle out, and the big feature to watch will be cold core closer upper low over Oklahoma. The 12Z GFS hints the most widespread rain from this will be west of our state, over Mississippi, West Tennessee, Louisiana, and Arkansas. We will mention a chance of showers here on Friday, but I get the idea a decent part of the day will be dry. The GFS is printing a high of 73 for Birmingham.

SATURDAY: This could be the day with the most widespread rain if the morning model runs are correct. Rain is likely a pretty decent part of the day, and because of the clouds and some cold air advection, I doubt if we can get out of the 60s. The good news is that there is no severe weather threat, and probably not much thunder. Just good ole fashioned rain.

SUNDAY: The 12Z GFS pushes a dry slot into Alabama, and if this solution is correct, we will enjoy some morning sunshine followed by a partly sunny afternoon. Due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low (which should be just north of Alabama), a few afternoon showers could form, but they will be pretty widely separated. If we do see some sun, the high will be at or just over 70 degrees.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Based on new model data, it sure looks like a pretty good part of the day Friday will be dry, although one or two passing showers is certainly possible… good news for the Arca 250. Then, on Saturday, rain is likely, which will be a big factor for the running of the Aaron’s 312. A delay sure looks likely, and there could be an issue with getting that race in since it should be the wettest day of the weekend.

Sunday looks much better, with only a few scattered showers around. The high Friday afternoon will be around 71… followed by a high of 68 Saturday, and 70 degrees on Sunday. Sunday morning will be cool with a temperature around 50 degrees at daybreak.

WORD OF CAUTION: A cold core upper low is a weatherman’s woe… so please understand this forecast could change. But, what you see above is the best solution for now.

A few showers could linger on Monday, mainly north of Birmingham… then drier air moves into the state Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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I really had a great time today seeing the 3rd, 4th, and 5th graders at Hokes Bluff Elementary School…. be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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