A Few Showers/Storms Later Today

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BACK IN THE SADDLE: Thanks to Brian Peters for handling the blog discussions and videos while I was on vacation… the time off was appreciated but it is always good to be back. All of us that write here love weather and the chance we have to share it with you every day.

LATE JUNE IN ALABAMA: This is a time of the year when we deal with one of the great mysteries of weather forecasting in Alabama… location, placement, and coverage of the usual “scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms” we have just about every day in summer. Trying to nail down day to day changes is almost impossible since what determines the degree of showers and storms is so small scale. I recommend reading this post about summer weather forecasting in Alabama, that explains the issue in great detail.

TODAY: Partly sunny with a high around 90 degrees today. There is a bit of a weakness in the upper ridge over Alabama, and with the air aloft being slightly cooler I figure there should be an increase in the number of showers and storms around this afternoon and early tonight. Still, it won’t rain everywhere… the chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three, and most of the showers should come between noon and 8 p.m. This is exactly what we expect in late June.

REST OF THE WEEK: I honestly don’t see much change through mid-week. The GFS and the NAM are a little more aggressive with the coverage of showers and storms by Wednesday; both ramp up the POP (probability of precipitation) into the 50-60 percent range as the ridge continues to weaken, but this might be a little too aggressive as earlier runs were drier Wednesday. For now we will just roll with the “broad brush” forecast tomorrow through Friday and mention the daily risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms”, and we can make adjustments as needed. Afternoon highs will remain in the 88-91 degree range. Most of the sun will come during the midday hours, with the best chance of a shower or storm between 2 and 8 p.m.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Again, no real sign of change. If anything, the coverage of showers and storms might be a little higher thanks to an upper trough north of here, and the approach of a weak surface front. It won’t rain all weekend, but we will have to dodge the summertime scattered showers and storms both days. Highs will remain somewhere between 88 and 91 degrees.

TROPICS: All remains very quiet across the vast Atlantic basin, but out in the land of voodoo we note the 06Z GFS brings some type of tropical low up into the Central Gulf Coast next week, with a big wet down here on the Fourth of July. But, we all know that the voodoo land systems rarely happen, but just something to keep an eye on. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) phase outlook does suggest things should begin to heat up in July.

AT THE BEACH: Looks fairly typical for late June this week. For the region between Panama City and Gulf Shores, about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with the daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CT… you can watch on our digital weather channel “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I will be speaking to kids this morning at a summer program at Matthews Elementary in Northport… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: humid, showers

Category: Alabama's Weather