Late Morning Update

Just after 11 am, cumulus clouds had begun forming in the sky over North and Central Alabama while some low clouds and fog were finally dissipating in the area from Montgomery to Columbus, GA. With the morning soundings in, it sure looks like showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southern portion of the state and the Florida Panhandle. Precipitable water values were down around one and a quarter inches over North and Central Alabama as compared to values closer to 2 inches over southern sections. Lapse rates over the northern half of the state are much less than the environment we saw yesterday.

So it looks like we should see mostly dry weather today with highs climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s, 87 to 92 range, across the area. An isolated shower in Central Alabama is still possible, but I really do not expect to see much development here.

Both the NAM and GFS MOS products show dew points lowering to near 60 degrees tomorrow. I’m not completely sure those values are to be trusted since late morning values seem to be several degrees higher than what is forecast for early this afternoon. Plus you have to go all the way western Kentucky to see dew points near 60. There’s no doubt it is going to be drier, maybe just not quite as good as the MOS products show. Precipitable water values come back a little tomorrow, but they come up to values around 1.5 inches. This could mean that we stay essentially dry tomorrow, too, with the bulk of showers in South Alabama. Again, though, we are not dry enough to completely rule out the development of a shower or two.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather