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An Unorganized Chantal

| July 10, 2013 @ 10:27 am

During the overnight hours, Chantal weakened quite a bit. She has been very disorganized from the get go because her forward speed is very fast for a tropical system. The bulk of her convection and thunderstorms have remained off to the east of the low pressure center. During the early morning hours, a closed circulation could not be found on satellite, and it was thought the Chantal may have transitioned back into an open tropical wave. This is not the case as the Air Force Reconnaissance Plane still finds a closed circulation. Chantal will have a very difficult time over the next 24 hours as she will be interacting with land masses and an unfavorable environment with increased wind shear.

7-10-2013 10-11-26 AM

…AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT CHANTAL IS STILL A
TROPICAL STORM…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…16.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 335 MI…535 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 29 MPH…46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

As Chantal has weakened, her westward progression has increased as well. Weaker storms a lot of times are influenced by the Bermuda High over the Central Atlantic and it will steer these storms west along its edge. Chantal’s track has been shifted farther to the west by the NHC, but they are till expecting her to make a more northward turn. It does appear she will impact the Southeast U.S. and it looks as though the greatest threat from Chantal will be very heavy rainfall. There is still a lot of time to watch this storm.

7-10-2013 10-13-59 AM

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
EATIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 29 MPH…46 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DESCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK…CHANTAL
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL MOVE BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA TONIGHT
AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB…29.85 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING…AND REACH HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE…A STORM SURGE…ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES…WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL…CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA…CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA…AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA.

Category: Tropical

About the Author ()

Macon, Georgia Television Chief Meteorologist, Birmingham native, and long time Contributor on AlabamaWX. Stormchaser. I did not choose Weather, it chose Me. College Football Fanatic. @Ryan_Stinnet

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