Rain Returns To Alabama Saturday

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CALM MORNING: Alabama’s weather will remain rather quiet through tomorrow. The daytime hours will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with afternoon highs in the 80s. We might consider a slight risk of an afternoon shower tomorrow over West Alabama, but for now we will leave it out of the forecast.

WET START TO THE WEEKEND: Confidence in a beneficial rain event during the day Saturday is still high, but forecasting the end of the rain is a challenge. Rain begin during the pre-dawn hours Saturday, most likely between midnight and 5 a.m., and a surface cold front approaches from the northwest, and tropical moisture rolls in here from the southwest.

Rain is likely throughout the day Saturday, with potential for some thunder as well. There will be some breaks in the rain, but we figure most places will see a good 5 to 6 hours of wet weather.

Severe weather is not expected around here, although a strong storm is possible Saturday afternoon over the southern half of the state. Rain amounts of around one inch look likely for North/Central Alabama, with potential for heavier amounts in spots. Flooding, however, is not expected. Temperatures won’t get out of the 70s because of clouds and rain.

WHEN WILL IT STOP? That is the forecast problem. The GFS and the RPM models now are more progressive, and show the rain ending from northwest to southeast late Saturday afternoon, with mostly rain-free weather for North/Central Alabama Saturday night. This, of course, is great news for football fans. But, the ECMWF (European) model holds a soaking rain in place through Saturday night, and even into part of the day Sunday.

So, we will be a little more optimistic in our football forecasts for Saturday night, but I am not ready to drop the chance of rain completely out of respect to the Euro.

SUNDAY: The GFS and RPM suggest Sunday will be a very nice day, with ample sunshine and a high around 80 degrees with low humidity. But again, the ECMWF solution would involve rain lingering into Sunday morning; that solution is discounted for now.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks dry here for the first half of the week with sunny days and fair nights; highs will be in the 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: The weather should be dry for high school games tonight and tomorrow night with temperatures falling through the 70s.

No doubt tailgate parties in Tuscaloosa will be soggy with rain likely during the day in Tuscaloosa, but there is now a chance the rain will be over in time for the Alabama/Colorado State kickoff at 6:00p CT. We will mention some risk of a little lingering light rain during the first half, but hopefully we can remove that in later forecasts. The kickoff temperature will be around 77 degrees, then falling into the low 70s by the final whistle.

Auburn will be in Baton Rouge to take on LSU; much like Tuscaloosa, rain is likely during the day Saturday, but now a reasonable chance the bulk of the rain will be over in time for the 6:45p CT kickoff. Just an outside risk of a stray shower during the first half; the kickoff temperature will be near 78 degrees, falling into the mid 70s by the fourth quarter.

In Birmingham, UAB will host Northwestern State at Legion Field Saturday afternoon (kickoff 2:00p CT). Rain is likely during the game, although it could end at some point during the second half. Some thunder is possible as well; the kickoff temperature will be near 76 degrees.

TROPICS: The disturbance over the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, still has the potential to become Tropical Storm Jerry over the next few days. It is a very low latitude system, and the latest set of tropical models is pushing it very slowly toward the Mexican coast next week with no impact around here. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: About 5 to 7 hours of sun today and tomorrow from Panama City to Gulf Shores with a few widely scattered showers or storms. Rain is likely Saturday, with potential for heavy rain at times. Then, conditions improve Sunday with some returning sunshine, and for now the first half of next week looks dry with a good supply of sunshine each day. Highs mostly in the 80s, although temperatures probably won’t get out of the 70s Saturday because of clouds and rain.

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I will be speaking to the senior adults at the Rock Creek Church of God this morning, and then this evening I will be live from the annual Birmingham Fall Home and Garden Show at the BJCC at 4, 5, and 6:00. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: dry

Category: Alabama's Weather