Map Discussion

You are not going to be pleased with this map discussion if you are accustomed to the one that James does twice a day. We are spread thin today so time does not permit an exhaustive study.

And I do not have the setup to post maps/graphics/pix to the system. So this is a quick overview:

NOW
The surface low that brought all the precipitation overnight was centered over SW Alabama this morning. It pulled warm air northward overnight. Would you believe 65 degrees in Mobile at 7 this morning while it was 32 in the NE corner of the state.

THIS WEEKEND
Chance of a winter storm has faded. Any disturbance in the southern branch will be depressed too far south. Could be a few flurries.

UPPER AIR PATTERN
Still the same old basic pattern. northern Branch and the southern Branch. At times they almost merge. Generally the southern branch will transport disturbances from the SW USA east and NE rapidly. At times this will cause a surface low to spin up in the Gulf of Mexico. The timing of those upper air disturbances, especially several days down the road, can be very tricky.

This pattern will prevent us from any mild spells probably for the next 10 days to two weeks unless there is a pattern change.

Good chance we will not get much above 50 for the next 8 days.

Surges of cold air coming down from the north will chill us to:

Low of about 26 Saturday morning
about 25 Sunday morning
20-22 Monday morning.

We may not get above about 38 in daytime both Sunday and Monday. Could be some flurries with each new invasion of cold air…but nothing big.

WAY DOWN THE ROAD
The 06Z (midnight) GFS model points to a possible interesting situation not this weekend but the next weekend (February 10-11) It shows a lot of precipitation still over Alabama with the magic 540 line down to the Mobile-Anniston line. I know I am often too conservative in forecasts very far down the road, so this is by no means a forecast.

I

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