Warm October Day; Storms Tomorrow Night

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STILL DRY TODAY: While a major storm system gets it’s act together west of Alabama today, we stay rain-free with a mix of sun and clouds. And, the day will be pretty warm for late October with most locations seeing a high around 80 degrees this afternoon, which is 10 degrees above average.

STORMY HALLOWEEN NIGHT: Our weather stays dry tomorrow morning, but showers and storms will move into the state from the northwest late in the day.

TIMING: The high resolution NAM model brings showers into Northwest Alabama tomorrow afternoon, so places like Sulligent, Vernon, Hamilton, and Russellville could see some rain as early as 1-3 p.m. In terms of the main band of storms, they will move into Northwest Alabama in the 4:00 to 6:00 p.m. time frame. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, storms should begin around 7:00 p.m. See the graphic below prepared by the NWS in Birmingham…

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for parts of northwest Alabama tomorrow night…

The best combination of shear and instability will be near places like Memphis and Jackson, Tennessee, up into western Kentucky. Here in Alabama, we have the high shear, low instability which is not unusual for our fall severe weather season. Instability values are very marginal, with surface based CAPE values well under 500 j/kg. But, low level (0-1 km) helicity values are quite high over the northwest part of the state.

In Alabama the best chance of any severe weather will be west of a line from Reform to Smith Lake to Huntsville, and the main threat will come from strong gusty winds associated with thunderstorms. However, an isolated tornado tomorrow evening in this part of the state can’t be ruled out with the high shear values.

Storms should slowly weaken as they move toward Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, and the severe weather threat here is very marginal.

RAIN AMOUNTS: Most places will see rain totals of one to one and a half inches, but a few spots might approach two inches. Flooding is not expected since it has been dry for a while.

See the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and details.

FRIDAY: Rain will end from west to east during the morning hours, and the sky will become mostly clear by Friday night. Rain won’t be an issue for high school football games Friday night.

OUR WEEKEND: Much cooler, with sunny days and clear nights. The high Saturday will be in the mid 60s, and Sunday will feature a high only in the 60-63 degree range. Sunday morning’s low will be near 40 degrees, with 30s for the colder pockets.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn plays at Arkansas Saturday (5:00pm CT kickoff); the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 55 degrees, falling quickly into the 40s by halftime. UAB will host Middle Tennessee State Saturday at Legion Field in Birmingham (12:00pm CT kickoff); the sky will be sunny. About 62 degrees at kickoff, 65 degrees by the final whistle with a stiff north wind of 10-20 mph.

NEXT WEEK: The latter half of the week looks unsettled with showers and storms… the rain could begin as early as Wednesday, and strong storms are possible. Too early to determine if severe weather will become an issue.

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I have weather programs this morning at Berry Middle School in Hoover, and Walnut Park Elementary in Gadsden. Be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather