Shivery Weather Holds On – Relief Ahead?

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Bit of a nip in the air if you have stepped outside just about any place in Central Alabama this morning. Looks a bit frosty peeking out from my front door with temperatures ranging from the teens across the normally colder valley locations of the areas northeast of Birmingham to the lower 20s at most airport locations. Certainly one of the colder days of 2007. So bundle up if you are headed out this morning.

Unlike yesterday, I think the temperature will actually climb during the day. Yesterday we had very strong cold air advection, and temperatures across Central Alabama fell during the afternoon. Fortunately with some sun it did not feel too bad. Today the sun will help out a good deal but it will still be cold with highs only into the lower 40s – that’s about 10 degrees below what we would normally expect for early February.

And it appears that there is some relief from the cold in sight. We should stay dry but cold for the weekend and the first part of the upcoming week. A little reinforcing shot of cold air arrives late Monday and early Tuesday, but by Wednesday we begin to see some moderation in the temperatures. And we could actually see readings climb above 50 degrees by Thursday and Friday. And that’s a rare event since we’ve only seen 50-degree readings three times since January 15th.

The NAO is indicating that trend, too. The NAO goes slightly positive in about a week, so that adds some confidence to the longer range forecast that we will see some moderation to the grip winter now holds on the Southeast. Of course, that does not mean that we won’t have short duration cold spells, but it could signal the end to this persistent cold. And we are only about 46 days away from the official start to spring!! And if you missed it, Smith Lake Jake, the Birmingham Zoo’s resident groundhog prognosticator, did NOT see his shadow yesterday promising an early spring!!! Color me skeptical!! On top of what happened in Florida yesterday morning, maybe that is not such good news.

With the temperature moderation also comes a weak short wave aloft and the possibility of some light rain or showers in the Friday/early Saturday time frame. But by mid-day on Saturday, the precipitation is expected to move out of Central Alabama. As that happens, cold air returns to the southern US.

In the longer range, sometimes referred to as voodoo land, the upper air pattern continues to show a long wave trough over the eastern US but the amplitude of that trough not quite as high as what we’ve been seeing in recent days. And the next big storm threat might come on Valentine’s Day, so we’ll be watching that one.

We had a great crowd out at Shelton State Community College for the first stop on the Storm Alert Tour of 2007. The next stop will be Oneonta on Thursday, February 8th. Hope you can join us. And be sure to tune in this evening for the latest weather, news, and sports on ABC 3340 at 6 and 10 pm. Have a great weekend and God bless.

-Brian-

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