Alabama 811 | Know What's Below.

Practically Balmy

| January 4, 2014 @ 6:36 am

* * * Due to travel this morning, there is not a Weather Xtreme Video. I will have a new video on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. * * *

Central Alabama along with much of the central and eastern US is about to experience some of the coldest weather we’ve seen in about a decade or so. Focusing on Central Alabama, our morning lows are likely to drop into single digit values on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Plus our daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday are not likely to get out of the 20s. As James has noted, we’re headed for a period of about 60 hours or so below freezing. Be sure to take precautions for the cold by wrapping exposed pipes and being sure to take care of pets that normally reside outside.

But for the weekend, it is going to be downright balmy with highs today reaching the upper 40s and climbing even higher on Sunday into the lower 50s before the frigid air arrives. This morning, about 47 percent of the US was covered by snow. That will change on Sunday and Monday as a storm system cranks up and moves northeastward across the Ohio River Valley. This morning there are numerous winter weather advisories and warnings from Northeast Oklahoma to western New York, so the amount of area covered by snow will be on the increase in addition to pushing somewhat further south. This could have an impact on our lows Monday and Tuesday morning as the northerly flow will be coming across a wide snow field.

US Watch/Warning Map

In the upper atmosphere, a deep trough will be reinforced on Sunday night carving out a very deep trough over the eastern half of the country. Monday afternoon, the 500 millibar flow goes straight from North Alabama north-northwest to the Arctic Circle and the 540 thickness contour reaches the Gulf Coast. At the surface, a 1052 millibar high will plunge into the Central US bringing Arctic air southward, coldest air we’ve seen in at least a decade. As the upper trough digs in, a surface low will move from Arkansas on Sunday to Southeast Canada on Monday morning bringing winter weather to much of the area shown on the watch/warning map.

After a sunny day today, we should see clouds increase tonight with a cloudy, wet day on Sunday. Temperatures will rise somewhat thanks to a southerly flow with highs in the lower 50s. But that surface low will drag a front through the area from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, and the temperature is expected to plunge dramatically with lows by daybreak Monday morning in the range from 11 to 16 degrees. That alone is very cold, but with the deep trough firmly established and the snow field just to our north, lows of 4 to 8 degrees will occur on Tuesday morning. And I would not be surprised to see some of our typically colder locations hitting some negative numbers.

As to winter weather, rain is forecast for much of Sunday. The cold air will be arriving rapidly Sunday afternoon and evening, so it is likely that the precipitation will change over to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain in the evening and then to snow ending from the northwest as the drier air arrives by daybreak on Monday. Snow flurries could easily extend into Monday morning. Snowfall amounts are not expected to be significant with the highest amounts across the Tennessee River Valley where 1 to 2 inches of snow could occur. For much of Central Alabama generally in the area from Clanton to Cullman is likely to see a dusting of snow perhaps as much as an inch. I do not believe that the snow will cause any widespread travel issues, but the further north you go, the more the winter weather could present a problem especially when drivers go nuts.

The upper trough dampens somewhat into midweek before another strong short wave comes out of the Central and Southern Rockies in the Thursday/Friday time frame. This should present the Southeast US with a fairly quick warm up with highs climbing into the 50s by Thursday and Friday. As the vigorous short wave comes out of the Rockies, it will pump up the ridge over the Southeast US, so we could very well see a warm up next weekend into the lower 60s with a return of showers late Friday and into Saturday.

Yet another deep trough is forecast to dive into the Mississippi River Valley around the 15th of January which would bring another shot of frigid air along with a threat of winter weather. But this is voodoo country, so we’ll have to see how future model runs evolve. But the pattern sure looks to stay active and cold as the GFS continues to paint the long wave trough position over the eastern half of the country.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I have been invited to participate in the First Annual Polar Plunge at the aquatic center in Piedmont, AL, this morning. The event starts at 10 am and will benefit Venecia Butler’s Cancer Foundation. Hope to see you there, so we can raise funds for this cause. Come out and “Take the Plunge.” Have a great day and enjoy the relatively warm weekend with the Arctic blast expected Monday and Tuesday. I’ll post a video on Sunday morning. Be sure to check back with the Blog often as we continue to update you on the latest thinking for this extremely cold event. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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