Complicated Snow Potential Ahead

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The scenario shaping up for us over the next four to five days is a complicated one that could result in snow across South Alabama with just cold temperatures for northern Alabama. But for today, the forecast is pretty straight forward as we warm up nicely to temperatures pretty typical for the latter part of January with highs in the lower and mid 50s. High cirrus clouds across the area will dampen the sun’s ability to heat up the atmosphere, but that should be overcome by warm air advection.

An Arctic front approaches Alabama early Monday morning moving through the state briskly. This should set the stage once again for our high for the day to occur between midnight and 1 am on Monday morning. During the day, temperatures will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s with little change with some spots seeing steady or falling temperatures. Then the real challenge presents itself.

The cold air arrives in force with lows by Tuesday morning in the teens, about 12 to 16 degrees across Central Alabama. The models indicate a short wave moving across the Mississippi River on late Tuesday and early Wednesday that will set up an overrunning situation with moisture riding northward over the cold air. This will set up a Southeastern US winter weather event with snow potential for South Alabama but just cold weather for North Alabama. Watch the video to see how some of the models have really gone wild with snowfall potential.

Besides the snow potential, it looks like there could be a band of freezing rain and ice that would affect portions of North Florida, South Georgia, and southern South Carolina which could produce some serious travel issues there. Overrunning situations are not always as clear cut as well developed surface lows, and this far in advance it would only take a minor change to drastically change the greatest threat area. So while forecasters strive to provide the best possible weather forecast, it is a big atmosphere, so it would be wise to stay up with later forecasts and any potential winter weather warnings or advisories.

Another shot of cold air arrives as the moisture finally departs, so we could see some very chilly mornings on Wednesday and Thursday with lows 7 to 14 degrees across Central Alabama.

But as we saw yesterday, the GFS dampens the long wave trough over the eastern US replacing it with a building ridge late Sunday and into early next week which would bring a significant warming trend to the eastern half of the country into Week 2. However, the pattern remains quite active with a strong upper trough forecast to come across the US around February 5th, and this has a potential for producing a severe weather episode for the eastern US then. Lots of reasons to stay tuned.

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James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Enjoy the almost spring-like feel to the day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather