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Forecasters Gone Nuts?

| February 8, 2014 @ 3:23 pm

Have weather forecasters in the Southeast US gone nuts? Just look at the National Weather Service (NWS) watch/warning/advisory map below, and you might be inclined to think so. But actually, when it comes to the “rules” for forecasting, you have to remember that many forecast decisions are a result of forecaster judgement.

Watch/warning/advisory map at 3:00 pm on Saturday, February 8, 2014

Watch/warning/advisory map at 3:00 pm on Saturday, February 8, 2014

Looking at the map, disregard the tan colors which simply note the issuance of a Hazardous Weather Outlook which is actually a routine product prepared by NWS office.

You will note that there are two areas of medium blue which denote winter storm watches for Monday night into Tuesday. So the Little Rock and Birmingham forecasters have jumped ahead with a decision to provide people with greater lead time for the potential for a winter storm situation. Does this mean that other NWS offices like Jackson, MS, Huntsville, AL, Nashville, TN, Memphis, TN, and Morristown, TN, do not agree with the idea of a winter storm potential? No, it does not indicate that at all.

In fact, if you look deeper into NWS products, and sometimes there are simply too many of them [personal opinion stated here], you will find that each of those NWS offices that I listed in the previous paragraph have also expressed the potential for winter weather in that same time period in a product called the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Those offices have chosen to express the forecast uncertainty in the developing situation through that product instead of formalizing it more with an actual watch. Another fact you will find is that the NWS in Huntsville, AL, has issued a Special Weather Statement highlighting the similar potential.

So a quick glance at the map suggests that various NWS offices may not agree on the upcoming weather, but a closer examination reveals that they are all on the same page but have chose slightly different routes to express that forecast.

I hope this might shed some light on what may look like a confusing situation that actually is not.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather, Winter Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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