Gustav – Coastal Impact Statement

I have been inundated by dozens of e-mail messages from people asking about specific weather on the Gulf Coast this Labor Day weekend. I won’t be able to answer all of them individually, but this information should help in your decision planning.

DISCLAIMER: The skill in forecasting a specific point of landfall, and the intensity of a tropical cyclone days in advance is not especially high; this is simply a guide for planning purposes based on the best data we have now. This could change in coming days, so please have the blog in your RSS reader, or check back here often. For those of you that are new to the blog, we write detailed discussions and produce a Weather Xtreme video twice daily, and have frequent updates 24/7.

TIMING: At this time it looks like Gustav will make landfall on the Central Gulf Coast during the day Monday (Labor Day), perhaps Monday afternoon or Monday evening.

INTENSITY: NHC is forecasting Gustav to be a category 3 hurricane as it approaches the Gulf. NHC notes that southwesterly shear could limit the strengthening process as the system approaches the coast, and there is also a chance some drier air could be entrained into the system, which would keep it from growing stronger. There is very little skill in forecasting the intensity of a hurricane several days in advance, so this is a difficult call. Some models do ramp Gustav up to Category 4/5 status, but on the other hand the system could be a much weaker storm at the time of landfall. This is great hyperbole surrounding this system already, but we must remember that nobody knows what the intensity will be at this time. Just understand there is potential for this one to be a major hurricane (category three or higher).

LOCATION: We believe the greatest risk of landfall will be in the general area from Morgan City, Louisiana to Gulf Shores, Alabama. But, everyone all the way from Corpus Christi to Tampa Bay will need to monitor the progress of Gustav.

COASTAL WEATHER: The weather along the Gulf Coast from Panama City westward to Gulf Shores should be mostly sunny on Saturday and Sunday, although the surf will become rough during the day Sunday as Gustav approaches. Then, wind and rain will be increasing on Monday as weather conditions deteriorate rapidly. The worst weather will be along and east of the point of landfall.

EVACUATION: It is likely that an evacuation will begin over the weekend for communities in the path of Gustav, including the city of New Orleans. The Mississippi coast and the Alabama coast could also be in an evacuation situation by Sunday. This all depends on the projected track of Gustav, and the actions of local officials. I would expect contra-flow to be initiated when the evacuations begin.

More on Gustav and the latest Weather Xtreme video coming up by 3:30 this afternoon… stay tuned…

Category: Uncategorized