SPC Mesoscale Discussion: Severe Potential… Tornado Watch Likely

| October 10, 2018 @ 11:55 am

SUMMARY…A tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon across portions of central and southeast Georgia, and perhaps including parts of north Florida and southern South Carolina. A tornado threat will spread to the northeast as Hurricane Michael tracks toward southwest Georgia by early evening, after making landfall early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION…Trends in mosaic radar imagery suggest a new outer rain band may be developing across southeast into south-central GA (from approximately 25 WSW KSSI to 25 WSW KMCN). The combination of high-moisture-content air (surface dew points in the middle 70s) and surface heating, given the presence of filtered sunshine through high thin cirrus on the northeast periphery of Michael, is resulting in moderate instability. Meanwhile, trends in low-level shear per VAD profile at Valdosta, GA adjusted for storm motions of embedded cells in the rain bands indicated steady strengthening, with 0-1 km SRH approaching 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear around 40 kt. This strengthening trend is expected to persist through the afternoon and evening and expand northward and east some across central and eastern GA into adjacent southern SC, and perhaps north FL, as Michael tracks toward southwest GA. This high low-level shear environment favors an increasing tornado threat and the need for a tornado watch to the north and northeast of WW 406.

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