Archive for March 10th, 2010
Heavy rain has caused dangerous conditions across parts of the area today and tonight.
If you are driving tonight, do not drive across water which is running across the road. Remember, turn around…don’t drown. Many roads in Shelby County are closed tonight.
Rain is most widespread over East Alabama at this hour, mainly from Greenville to Montgomery then up into Chilton and Coosa Counties.
Flash flood warning continues tonight for Shelby County. Some areas have received over 7 inches of rain today. 7.32 inches of rain fell in Alabaster.
A large area has received between 3 and 5 inches.
The good news is that the county is about to get a break from the rain for a short while.
Storms have weakened a bit in the Birmingham area, which is good news.
Thunderstorms continue over western Alabama.
A tornado watch continues for West Central Alabama from Tuscaloosa to Demopolis to Butler to Jackson.
Severe weather is not the real problem tonight. It will be the potential for flooding.
There is a line of thunderstorms approaching the Mississippi River that may affect us in the morning.
Thanks to Scott Hopper for these images from Attalla tonight…
In a couple of months, we will have Sheldon Kusselson from NOAA NESDIS Satellite Branch on WeatherBrains. He monitors satellite data and consults with NWS Forecast Offices.
He was the author on a Satellite Precipitation Estimate this evening featuring one of the products he helped to develop…a blended precipitable water satellite product that is extremely helpful in identifying area of heavy rain threat.
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/10/10 2218Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS—NPPU—TEL.NNN-NNN-NNNN
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2200Z KUSSELSON
LOCATION…WEST CENTRAL AND NW GEORGIA…CENTRAL AND NE ALABAMA…
EVENT…EYEING CONVECTION SOUTH/SE/E/NE OF SHELBY COUNTY FOR FLOOD
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS…EARLIER WELL ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC
LEAF SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE HAS NOW BECOME MORE FRACTURED AS IT HAS
LIFTED NE ACROSS AL/GA AND ADDITIONAL COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE NOW
PASSED EAST OF SHELBY COUNTY. EXCEPT FOR SOME STRAY SHOWERS…CENTER
OF HVY RAIN THE PAST 12+ HRS HAS NOW PASSED TO THE EAST AND NE AND
THINK COOLING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF SHELBY COUNTY WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO PASS SE AND AFFECT W CENTRAL GA. LOW LEVEL PRECIP WATER
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND HIGH LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP CONVECTION REGENERATE ON BACK/SOUTHERN AND SW FLANK OF BAROCLINIC
LEAF INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR HVY RAIN AND
INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE SHELBY/
TALLADEGA COUNTY AREA WHERE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND OBSERVED IN PARTS OF
THAT AREA HAVE BEEN 3.5″+ SINCE MIDNIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO (PWATS NEAR 1.5″) SPREADING NORTH THRU CENTRAL GULF AND
FILLING IN MOISTURE TO NOW FORM A CONTINUOUS PLUME WITH LEADING EDGE OF
THAT DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AL/W CENTRAL GA…SO WOULD EVENTUALLY
EXPECT HIGH PRECIP AREA OF W CENTRAL/INTERIOR NW GA AND CENTRAL TO W
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS INCREASED
PRECIP GETS GOING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR…SEE SATELLITE ESTIMATE GRAPHIC SHORTLY ON
HOME PAGE FOR THE PERIOD 1145Z-2145Z AND ANALYSIS GRAPHIC AS WELL.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
….NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET….
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
…ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
LAT…LON 3430 8662 3418 8606 3408 8437 3296 8495 3242 8652
Here is the blended precipitible water product.
Here is the satellite precipitation estimate.
Sheldon will have some fascinating information for the WeatherBrains audience about satellites in weather forecasting.
Sorry to yell…but this is important.
Very dangerous situation tonight in Shelby County. Huge rainfall amounts have already been received and very heavy rainfall is forming again upstream, poised to move over the County again.
6 to 7 inch rainfall amounts are common on Doppler Radar estimates and these have been borne out by actual rainfall reports…
Here is what is upstream at 8:20 p.m. Everything is moving northeast.
Be alert if you live in a flood prone area and be ready to move to higher ground if flooding begins.
Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Do not drive into water that is standing or flowing. You do not know the integrity of the road underneath or the depth.
Remember…turn around…don’t drown!
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
802 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010
CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS AFFECTING BIBB…JEFFERSON AND
.HEAVY RAINFALL OF OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS OVER THE CAHABA RIVER DRAINAGE BASIN…AND A FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CAHABA RIVER.
DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. TURN AROUND…DON’T DROWN.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THURSDAY MORNING…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
802 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE CAHABA RIVER NEAR CAHABA HEIGHTS.
* UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.9 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
RISE TO NEAR 16.0 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW . THE RIVER WILL
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON .
* IMPACT…AT 17.0 FEET…FLOODING OF SOME COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN THE
AREA BEGINS AT STAGES NEAR 18 FEET
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Greene, Sumter Counties till 8:45 PM CST.
The Tornado Warning issued earlier for Greene and Hale Counties was canceled.
It’s going to be a long night.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of Alabama now in a Slight Category Risk for severe weather overnight.
Here are the probabilities. The probabilities are that the threat (tornado, winds greater than 58 mph or hail 1″ or larger in diameter) will occur within 25 miles of your location.
The hatched are on the hail chart is 10% or greater chance than 2″ or larger hail will occur within 25 miles of points in that area.
New tornado watch goes until 2 a.m. for West Central Alabama, much of Central Mississippi, southeastern Arkansas and northeastern Louisiana…
BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 25
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010
TORNADO WATCH 25 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BIBB CHOCTAW CLARKE
DALLAS GREENE HALE
MARENGO MONROE PERRY
PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA
Tornado watch continues until 8 p.m. for
Autauga, Chilton and Lowndes.
The following counties have been canceled from the watch…
Barbour, Bullock, Chambers, Coosa, Elmore, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Pike, Russell and Tallapoosa.
Confused? We will get you a map shortly…
From Herb Coleman…
I took a reading at 7:p.m. and we had picked up another ..98 inches of rainfall since noon. This brings our total for Pelham to 6.06 inches. Bishop creek is now over it’s banks and we are experiencing some flooding with water over some roads.
(Pictures are from earlier)
Two storms in Arkansas tonight are tornadic.
Number one is in the Little Rock area…
Damage has been reported in Saline County. Highway 5 is blocked. Damage reported near Hurricane Lake. Large hail now falling in Maumelle.
Number two is just northwest of Hot Springs…
Severe thunderstorm warning until 7:30 for northern Sumter and southern Pickens Counties in West Central Alabama.
Another look at some of the communities in the path of this warning…
LATE REPORT FROM SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…
…Rain wrapped tornado reported just NNW of Fruitdale…in Washington County…was headed toward Chatom. Tornado warning in effect.
Flood deaths are one of the most preventable. Lead times on flood warnings are now nearly 45 minutes.
But still people die.
You just don’t think it could happen to you or someone you love.
Numerous reports of flooding tonight, especially across Shelby County now. The county is getting a break now from the rain, but we continue to get reports of flooding and flooded roads from there.
One such report:
…Shelby County 49 is closed with water flowing over the bridge two miles south of Shelby County 47.
…numerous roads closed through Helena earlier…
…flooding has been especially significant in Talladega County as well…flooding was reported just before 6 p.m. north of Munform on McAffee Road. Bridge washed out 5 miles north of Talladega at Jackson Trace Road and Pine Hill Road.
More on the severe thunderstorm warnings in just a minute…