Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast
Monday Morning, September 9th, 2024
Forecaster: Scott Martin
A DRY START, BUT A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SOAKING LATER THIS WEEK
After we start off with cooler temperatures to start your Monday, those temperatures will begin to quickly rise with mainly sunny skies. Unfortunately, the humidity will begin to rise as well, which will make it feel more humid outdoors. Afternoon highs in the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
On Tuesday, our weather will remain calm, and we’ll notice that our breeze will be coming out of the east. That will put a small hold on our increasing humidity. While much of the northern half of the area will be nearly cloudless, there will be an increase to clouds over the southern half as a potential tropical storm or hurricane will be approaching the Gulf Coast. Rain and storms will be possible over extreme South Alabama, but Central Alabama will remain dry. However, clouds will begin to increase late from the south and southwest. Highs in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Tropical moisture continues to move north and northeastward, and we’ll begin to see rain and breezy conditions on Wednesday. Rain and a few storms will become likely over the southwestern portions of Central Alabama by just after daybreak and scattered showers potentially reaching the I-20 corridor by evening. Highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
Thursday will be the day that we will need to be weather aware, as the tropical system will be moving into the southwestern portions of Mississippi by daybreak, and moving roughly up the Mississippi River. That will put Central Alabama into the wetter and more active side of the system. Rain and breezy conditions will be likely at times, some thunder possible, and we’ll have to watch for the potential of a few quick spin-up tropical tornadoes. They may be hard to spot on radar as the storms will be low-topped and most likely below the radar beam. It looks like we should be in the clear from the tornado threat around midnight Thursday night. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. Sustained winds may reach 15-30 MPH across the area from east to west, with gusts as high as 35-50 MPH.
Winds will stay breezy on Friday, and we will continue to see scattered to numerous showers and some rumbles of thunder throughout the day, with the most activity over the eastern half of Central Alabama. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH will be possible during the morning hours, then will begin to slowly drop as the system continues to pull northward. Highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. For the high school football games, much of the rain and storms will have moved out of the area by kickoff time, but I can’t rule out a few lingering showers over the far east and northeastern parts of the area.
DO WE DRY OUT NEXT WEEKEND… NOPE
We will continue to have tropical moisture in place over the area, and with the heating of the day, scattered showers and storms will become possible by early Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will be according to how much of that moisture hangs around, but for now, chances will be slightly less than 50/50. Highs in the upper 70s to the mid 80s.
And pretty much the same story on Sunday, as scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible as that tropical moisture will not have packed up and left yet. Highs in the lower to mid 80s.
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION VERY SOON IN THE GULF
As of 7:00 PM CDT Sunday evening, PTC-6 was centered near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.7 West, moving northwest at 5 mph. A slow northwest to northward movement is expected over the next day, with a faster turn to the northeast by late Tuesday. The system is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines by Wednesday.
This disturbance is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm soon, with current winds of 40-50 mph. It could reach hurricane strength before making landfall later this week. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for northeastern Mexico, and more watches may be issued for southern Texas. Residents along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines should prepare for possible storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rain starting Tuesday night. Flash flooding is possible from northeast Mexico into Texas and Louisiana through Thursday, so make sure your hurricane plans are ready.
OTHER TROPICAL MISCHIEF POSSIBILITIES
Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest 92L):
Showers and storms associated with a low-pressure area in the central tropical Atlantic haven’t changed much today. Conditions are favorable for further development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form as it lingers in the area. By midweek, it’s expected to move westward at around 10 mph.
* Chance of formation in 48 hours: 60%
* Chance of formation in 7 days: 70%
Eastern & Central Tropical Atlantic:
A low-pressure trough west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is causing disorganized showers and storms. The system won’t move much over the next few days but could interact with a tropical wave from Africa on Monday. Conditions are expected to improve, allowing for potential development of a tropical depression by mid or late week as it starts moving west-northwest.
* Chance of formation in 48 hours: 0%
* Chance of formation in 7 days: 50%
ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1988 – Florence became a hurricane and headed for the Central Gulf Coast Region. Florence made landfall early the next morning, passing over New Orleans LA. Winds gusts to 80 mph were recorded at an oil rig south of the Chandeleur Islands. Wind gusts around New Orleans reached 61 mph. Total property damage from Florence was estimated at 2.5 million dollars.
SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
Weather can be unpredictable, catching us off guard with its sudden changes. From thunderstorms to tornadoes or flash floods, being ready beforehand can be a lifesaver. Alabama, with its varied climate, faces its share of severe weather. That’s why having a solid safety plan is so important for everyone. Check out our Severe Weather Safety Guide for valuable tips on how to stay safe when severe weather is on the horizon.
BEACH FORECAST
Please visit our Beach Forecast Center page to access the most up-to-date weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches spanning from Fort Morgan to Panama City. On this platform, you can choose the forecast specific to the region you intend to visit, ensuring you have accurate and relevant information for your plans.
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