Central Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast

Monday Morning, July 16th, 2018
Scott Martin (Twitter: @ScottMartinWx)

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER FOR MONDAY
We’ll start off the morning hours with a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures starting off in the lower to mid-70s. By the afternoon hours, we’ll have convective clouds building and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing. I have a feeling it will be pretty similar to Sunday’s weather, so expect the more active time for storms from 11:00 AM to 9:00 PM. Afternoon highs will be mainly in the lower 90s throughout the area.

Precipitable water values are projected to be at 2.00 inches or above, and with weaker winds aloft, I don’t expect any storms to move much at all. Therefore, some ponding or localized flash flooding could occur. Of course, we’ll have to watch out for the dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and possible strong wind gusts up to 40 MPH.

Activity should begin to weaken and dissipate throughout the evening and into the late night hours, with nearly all showers and storms completely gone by midnight, even though it is possible for one or two to linger around for a little while longer. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s

LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK
Never leave children, disabled or elderly adults, or pets in parked vehicles. Studies have shown that the temperature inside a parked vehicle can rapidly rise to a dangerous level for children, pets and even adults. Leaving the windows slightly open does not significantly decrease the heating rate. The effects can be more severe on children because their bodies have not developed the ability to efficiently regulate internal temperature. Heat related deaths are preventable, so look before you lock.

A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
Starting late on Monday night and well into the day on Tuesday, a trough with an associated cold front will take over the weather pattern, but it will take at least a day or two before we’ll see a difference in our weather.

Tuesday will continue to be the same as we’ll have high moisture values making the heat very oppressive, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will be stationed just to our north, making our rain chances in the 60-80% neighborhood for any one spot throughout the area, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s.

The cold front will make its way through the northern half of the state by Wednesday morning, but it is expected to wash out somewhere between Birmingham and Montgomery. This will keep our rain chances higher for “Hump Day,” somewhere in the 40-60% range mainly south of Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston, while chances will be in the 20-30% north of that line. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

On Thursday, that front is still stalled over Central Alabama, so the news will pretty much stay the same. Scattered showers and storms more possible in the southern half of the area, while the northern half will have a smaller chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Thursday will also feature a little more sunshine and highs will be back in the lower 90s.

A low pressure center forms and strengthens as it pushes over the western Great Lakes region on Friday, helping to force the stalled front out of the area. On its tail is another cold front that is being pulled into our direction and will be just north of the state by the end of the day. As that happens, our scattered showers and storm chances climb back up in the 50-60% range for all of Central Alabama. Sunshine will be limited by the afternoon and highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

NEXT WEEKEND
The trough deepens over Central Alabama throughout the weekend keeping our shower and storm chances somewhat elevated, but less than what we will be seeing on Friday. We’ll have some sun at times, but we’ll continue to have oppressive heat and humidity levels. Highs will be in the lower 90s. The good news is that the trough is keeping the dreaded “594 heat bubble” out over the southwestern desert region of the US.

AN UPDATE ON THE TROPICS
The last advisory was issued last night at 10:00 PM CDT as Beryl had transitioned into a remnant low once again. The remnants of Beryl will continue to lose organization and should dissipate by Tuesday. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet at this point.

BEACH FORECAST CENTER
Get the latest weather and rip current forecasts for the beaches from Fort Morgan to Panama City on our Beach Forecast Center page. There, you can select the forecast of the region that you are interested in.

ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1975 – An early afternoon thunderstorm raked the east side of Tucson, AZ, with gale force winds, heavy rain, and numerous lightning strikes. A thirteen year old boy was swept through a forty foot long culvert by raging waters before being rescued.

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