Central Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast

Wednesday November 25, 2020
Forecaster: James Spann

ACTIVE PATTERN: We will have a very active weather pattern across Alabama and the Deep South over the next seven days, with strong to severe storms, heavy rain, and much colder air along the way. This morning, we have some light rain over West Alabama, with a band of heavier showers to the west over Mississippi. This activity will diminish over the next few hours; then showers and heavier thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and tonight ahead of a cold front. SPC maintains a low end “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for much of the state through tonight.

While this is not a major threat, it does look like there will be a sufficient combination of shear and surface based instability for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with the front.

TIMING: The heavier storms will come from 3:00 this afternoon until 9:00 tonight. Storms will weaken after 9:00 as the air becomes more stable.

THREATS: Thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail and strong gusty winds. Also, a brief, isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out, especially over the western half of the state. And, a tight pressure gradient today will being south winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph at times (not involving thunderstorms).

RAIN: Rain amounts of about 1/2 inch are likely for most places, with isolated totals to one inch. Flooding is not expected.

While this is not a “major” severe weather event, you still need to be in a place to hear severe weather watches and warnings if they are needed.

THANKSGIVING DAY: The front will stall out over South-Central Alabama tomorrow, and dry air returns to the northern half of the state. We expect a mix of. sun and clouds over North/Central Alabama tomorrow with a high in the 60s. A few showers are possible over South Alabama, especially south of U.S. 84… but the rain won’t be widespread or heavy there.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Two waves will form and move along the front. The first wave will bring rain to most of the state late Friday afternoon and Friday night. Severe storms are not expected, and rain amounts will be around one inch. Friday will be a mild day with highs in the mid 70s as the rain begins to return.

Then, on Saturday, the front moves southward again to near the Gulf Coast. Most of Alabama will be dry and pleasant on Saturday with a high in the 60s. Some sun is likely over the northern half of the state.

On Sunday the second wave moves along the front, and rain becomes widespread again. Rain could be heavy at times, and a few strong storms are possible over South Alabama by Sunday night. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely before it tapers off in the early morning hours Monday.

NEXT WEEK: A deep, cold core upper low will move into the region Monday and Tuesday. This will bring the coldest air so far this season; temperatures will fall Monday, possibly reaching the 30s over the northern counties by afternoon with an icy north wind. A few sprinkles or flurries are possible under the cold core low Monday night; then the sky becomes partly sunny Tuesday with a high only in the 40s. Temperatures should be well below freezing both Tuesday and Wednesday morning… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

IRON BOWL: For the big game Saturday in Tuscaloosa (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures falling from near 68 at kickoff, into the low 60s by the final whistle. We do not expect any rain.

HIGH SCHOOL PLAYOFFS: For the high school playoff games Friday night, periods of rain are likely with temperatures in the 60s.

TROPICS: A low pressure area located along a frontal system more than 400 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of its center. The low is expected to interact with an upper-level trough later today, detach from the front by Thursday, and then possibly acquire subtropical characteristics on Friday while it moves southward over warmer waters. No threat to land, and the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet. The hurricane season ends Monday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1986: An EF-3 tornado tore through parts of Coffee, Dale and Barbour Counties in Southeast Alabama. The twister developed in the New Brockton area had a 44 mile intermittent path to the northeast through Ariton, Elamville, Clio and then Clayton where the tornado dissipated.

ON THIS DATE IN 1950: The “Great Appalachian Storm” impacted the eastern part of the US, killing hundreds and causing millions of dollars in damages. New York City recorded a 94 mph wind gust and Bear Mountain, just north of the city recorded a 140 mph gust. Record low temperatures were reported on the southern end of this storm in Tennessee and North Carolina. This storm was unique as Pittsburgh saw 30 inches of snow, while Buffalo saw 50 degrees with 50 mph wind gusts.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.