Central Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast

Sunday afternoon, September 23, 2018
Forecaster: Bill Murray

The northern half of Alabama continues to be abnormally dry as our rainfall deficits continue to increase. We now have official drought conditions across the northwestern corner of the state as well as across southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Some rainfall is on the way in the week ahead, but will it be enough to alleviate the recent dryness? Let’s see…

ON THE WEATHER MAPS: We find a pair of strong subtropical ridges across the southern United States and western Atlantic. That high south of Bermuda is a frequent visitor in the fall, and depending on its position, can help produce wet weather or dry weather. It will serve as a major impediment to the forward progress of a frontal system near the Northwest Corner of Alabama in the week ahead. That front will give Northwest Alabama decent rain chances again today. Clouds will keep places like Hamilton, Fayette, and Sulligent in the 80s today. Most other spots will be in the 90s.

NEW WORK WEEK: By Monday morning, a shortwave trough will be passing just to our north, but the anchoring high pressure to the east will keep the frontal system associated with the trough from pushing through the area. But moisture levels will be really increasing during the day as out low-level flow becomes more southerly. This will set the stage for rounds of showers and a few storms Monday and Tuesday. Highs will fall back into the lower and middle 80s.

MIDWEEK AND BEYOND: Not much change for Wednesday, and Thursday, with showers and thunder in the forecast. But it looks like high pressure may try to take control by Friday into the weekend, thinning out the showers and allowing the mercury to climb back into the upper 80s.

TROPICS: The tropical Atlantic has become quite active. But no major threats across the basin for the short term. Tropical depression 11 disspiated this morning. Tropical Storm Kirk formed on Saturday. It may threaten the Lesser Antilles by Thursday or Friday as a strong tropical storm. A disturbance in the Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores developed into a Subtropical Storm this morning. It is named Leslie now. It is no threat to the United States and will likely be absorbed by a larger low in coming days. Another disturbance south of Bermuda will perhaps develop as it moves toward the southeastern Coast of the U.S. (around the Carolinas). But upper-level conditions will not favor additional development.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Rain chances will be in the forecast for the week ahead along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Expect 3-5 hours of sun each day, with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s, lows in the middle 70s. Seas will be running 1-2 feet. The rip current threat will be low to moderate.

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WEATHERBRAINS: Get ready to hear from former Birmingham TV met Jay Prater Monday night. He has been in Wichita for quite some time. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com. You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 2000: Dallas and north Texas suffered through a long summer drought that was accompanied by high temperatures in 2000. At DFW Airport, 84 consecutive days were recorded with no measurable rainfall. That streak ended on September 23rd. Relief would finally arrive in October as beneficial rainfall finally arrived. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.