Central Alabama’s Most Detailed Seven Day Forecast

Saturday afternoon, November 18, 2017
Meteorologist: Ryan Stinnett

WAITING ON FRONT: It is a mainly cloudy and warm day with most locations in the lower 70s this afternoon with gusty southerly winds as the pressure gradient tightens with our system intensifying. A wind advisory is in effect until 3AM tomorrow for much of North/Central Alabama. A Wind Advisory means that wind gusts of 35 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult…especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. To our northwest, storms are developing along the cold front as it is approaching the Mississippi River early this afternoon and will continue a rapid progression towards the southeast the rest of today.

For us in Alabama early this afternoon, we are waiting on the front that is causing severe weather across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys early this afternoon. Looking at the latest SPC Convective Outlook, the “marginal risk” for severe storms has been extended a little farther south that now includes the extreme northern parts of Tuscaloosa and Jefferson counties. The SPC has also upgraded the extreme northern parts of the state to a “slight risk” including the cities of Tuscumbia, Florence, Decatur, Madison, Huntsville and Hazel Green. Within these areas thunderstorms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts, hail up to severe criteria, or a brief tornado mainly throughout the afternoon hours today.

The main forcing with today’s system will be mainly north of the state, but there will be enough in the northern part that a couple of severe storms are possible. There is some instability along and just ahead of the front that will allow for some thunderstorm development, more to the north. Helicity values will be high enough to support rotating updrafts, but with limited buoyancy, the risk for a tornado will remain rather low.

For the rest of Central Alabama that is not in a risk zone, we can expect a few showers to form out ahead of the front, but these will generally be light in nature and should not contain any thunder. By the time the cold front reaches the area, conditions will be more unfavorable for severe storms, even though a few stronger storms still remain possible.

The main band of showers and storms along with the cold front should enter the northwestern parts of the state by 3-5PM, and into the Birmingham Metro Area by 6-8PM, and out of the area by 11PM-1AM. There may be a few lingering showers just behind the front, but those will clear out shortly after the passage of the front. Rainfall amounts will be low throughout today’s event with the limited moisture and the quick movement of the front. Most everyone will see totals of 1/4-inch or less, with lighter amounts in the southern parts of the state.

OVERNIGHT: The front will be exiting the state rapidly overnight, and with the drier and cooler air mass moving into the state, we are going to see a clearing sky and temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s by first thing tomorrow morning. Most if not all of the clouds and rain will be suppressed to our far southeastern counties by early tomorrow morning.

SUNNY AND CHILLY SUNDAY: A completely different day of weather for Alabama tomorrow. The sky will be mainly clear with ample sunshine. We are going to be under the influence of northwesterly flow with winds of 5-15 mph tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will not make it out of the lower 50s for much of Central Alabama and it will be feeling cooler if the winds are more on the gusty side.

FREEZING TEMPS: Winds relax heading into tomorrow night, and with a clear sky, we are getting ready for what will be the coldest night of the season so far. We are should overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s all across Central Alabama, and we are anticipating freeze warnings to be issued.

WEEK OF THANKSGIVING: Monday afternoon will be clear and sunny with afternoon highs in the upper 50s. For the rest of the week, we are forecasting much of the week to be rain-free with cool days and cold nights. A fresh surge of colder air arrives Wednesday, and early morning temperatures should be around freezing both Thanksgiving and Friday morning. Highs will be mostly in the 50s. And, for now Iron Bowl Saturday looks cool and dry with a high around 60 degrees in Auburn on Saturday November 25.

BEACHBOUND: For a detailed look at the weather from Fort Morgan over to Panama City Beach, Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page. The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s Hot Deals now!

WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 109.4F at Eucla Amo, Australia. The lowest observation was -57.6F at Summit, Greenland.

CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: The highest observation was 97F at Rio Grande Village, TX. The lowest observation was -1F at Yellowstone Lake, WY.

WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 1873: A severe storm raged from Georgia to Nova Scotia causing great losses to fishing fleets along the coast. In Maine, the barometric pressure reached 28.49 inches at Portland.

WEATHERBRAINS: Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com. You will be able to see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.