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Central Alabama 7 Day Forecast

Mild Through Sunday; Then Much Colder

| 3:48 pm December 6, 2012

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THIS AFTERNOON: Montgomery and Tuscaloosa have soared to 75 degrees this afternoon; Birmingham reports 71 degrees at 3:00. Today’s average high is 58, and the record high for Birmingham is 78 set in 1998. The sky is partly sunny and there is no rain in progress across the state.

HERE COMES THE WEDGE: To the east, the CAD (cold air damming) effect is pulling down much colder air. Gainesville, Georgia is at 53 degrees, and Hickory, North Carolina reports 49. Some of this colder air will slip into Alabama from the east tonight, and temperatures tomorrow should be a bit cooler. Some of the communities near the Georgia border won’t get out of the 50s tomorrow; Birmingham’s high should be in the mid 60s, but close to the Mississippi border the high will be near 70. The sky will be mostly cloudy tomorrow, but showers should be very hard to find.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The wedge breaks down, and we warm up again. Most locations over the weekend will enjoy a high between 70 and 73 degrees. The sky will be cloudy at times, and a few widely scattered showers could pop up, especially on Saturday, but widespread rain isn’t expected, and the sun should peek out at times.

BIG CHANGES NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS is slower with the front and cold air arrival Monday. The latest run hints the main window for showers and storms will come from 6:00 a.m. until 6:00 p.m. Monday, and perhaps a little higher chance of strong/severe storms as the air will be more unstable, and a surface low shows up along the front over North Alabama. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, and some spots could see up to one inch with the stronger storms. If we do have any severe weather issue, more than likely the main problem will come from straight line winds. With the slower arrival of the front, we should reach the mid 60s Monday afternoon.

COLDER AIR BLOWS IN: Sure looks like we have a hard time getting out of the 40s Tuesday with very chilly north breeze, and we will be below freezing by early Wednesday, with 20s likely. Interesting to note the new 12Z GFS has no sign of the big wet-down Thursday we have seen on prior runs; needless to say the confidence in the forecast solution late next week is not very high.

LATER IN THE MONTH: The pattern continues to look generally colder for much of the continental U.S. over the latter half of December, but it is way too early to be specific about how cold, and when the various cold shots will arrive. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all of the graphics.

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