Severe Weather Threat Stays Well To The South
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HUGE TEMPERATURE VARIATION TODAY: This is clearly a case where a “one number” high temperature forecast won’t work. Areas north and east of Birmingham won’t get out of the 40s due to the “cold air damming” effect, or “the wedge” as we call it around here. Places like Gadsden, Anniston, Oneonta, Cullman, Trussville will have a very hard time finding 50 degrees today. But, south and west of Birmingham, places like Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, and Eutaw should rise into the low to mid 60s. It will be a nearly twenty degree spread.
BIG WET DOWN: As I write this update early this morning, widespread rain is falling over the southern half of the state, and some decent showers are also moving through the Birmingham metro area. We even note a little lightning showing up over North Lamar County in Northwest Alabama from an elevated thunderstorm. This morning batch of rain will exit the state within the next few hours, and midday should be cloudy but dry.
The big rain event comes late this afternoon and tonight as the deep upper trough to the west gets closer. Rain and storms will be widespread across Alabama from about 4:00 p.m. until 4:00 a.m. tomorrow. Around here, rain amounts of one inch are likely, but thankfully no severe weather thanks to the CAD/cool layer.
SOUTH ALABAMA ISSUES: The southern half of Alabama will have the dual threat of flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. In fact, early this morning parts of Mobile and Baldwin Counties are under flash flood warnings due to heavy overnight rain that continues. Additional rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely over South Alabama, and additional flash flooding issues are likely tonight.
The greatest risk of severe weather tonight will be near the Gulf Coast, but severe storms are possible as far north as U.S. 84 (Grove Hill to Monroeville to Evergreen to Dothan). Storms here could produce damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes; everybody across far South Alabama will need to have a good way of receiving severe weather warnings late this afternoon and tonight. A strong tornado can’t be ruled out.
TOMORROW: Rain ends very early, but the morning will stay overcast with a touch of drizzle in spots. The clearing process will be slow, but we might see a few intervals of sunshine tomorrow afternoon. We project a high in the upper 50s tomorrow.
REST OF THE WEEK: Our weather will be dry Wednesday through Friday with a trend toward colder temperatures. We most likely won’t get out of the 40s Friday with a cool north breeze.
COLD WEEKEND: The first weekend of March will feel like the first weekend of January as very cold air blows into Alabama thanks to a deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. The high Saturday will be in the low to mid 40s, but gusty winds will make it feel colder, and the cold air associated with the upper trough could produce a few snow flurries or snow showers during the day (no accumulation is expected). The sun will be out in full force Sunday, but the day will be cold with a low in the 20s, and a high in the mid to upper 40s.
LONG RANGE: The GFS shows another shot of cold air blowing in here around March 6… all of this cold air of course means no severe weather threat, which is a good thing since March begins our spring tornado season. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details, maps, and graphics.
STORM ALERT 2013 IN OHATCHEE TOMORROW NIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama continues through February. We will share lessons learned after the April 27, 2011 generational tornado event, along with other amazing weather stories. Learn how to keep your family safe during severe weather, and have a chance to win some cool prizes as well. Here are the remaining Storm Alert tour dates…
Tuesday February 26 Ohatchee – Ohatchee High School
Thursday February 28 Clay – Clay/Chalkville High School
All shows begin at 6:30… be sure and get there early to get a good seat.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce tonight’s show at 8:30 p.m. CST… you can watch it live here.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here around 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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