Rain Becomes Widespread Tomorrow
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THIS AFTERNOON: Radar shows patches of mostly light rain over parts of North and East Alabama this afternoon… the heaviest rain was over parts of DeKalb and Cherokee Counties around 3:00. Otherwise, the sky is cloudy and temperatures are in the 66-72 degree range, well below average for early May in Alabama.
Model agreement is pretty good on the scenario over the next several days… a deep, cold core upper low will form near Tulsa tomorrow, and it now looks like it will pass right over North Alabama late this weekend. Here is the day by day breakdown…
TOMORROW: Rain should be relatively widespread over Alabama. The rain should increase late tonight, and much of the day tomorrow looks wet. No severe weather, and probably not much thunder. Just good ole fashioned rain. We won’t get out of the 60s because of the clouds, and rain amounts of around one inch are likely.
SATURDAY: The rain will end from west to east during the midday hours Saturday as a dry slot works into the state from the west. A pretty good chance most North/Central Alabama communities see some sunshine Saturday afternoon, but temperatures will stay cool with a high only in the low to mid 60s.
SUNDAY: The 12Z GFS moves the cold core upper low right us… moving along I-20. This means the sky will be generally cloudy Sunday (a few peeks of sun are possible), and passing rain showers are likely. No, the rain won’t last all day, but any one spot now stands about a 70 percent chance of seeing at least one shower.
Due to the very cold air aloft, some hail or graupel is possible in the convective showers Sunday afternoon. And, we might even hear of a few cold air funnels. These can form even with stable low level air… they are caused by the rotation around the upper low and very cold air aloft. Cold air funnels don’t touch the ground, and aren’t really dangerous, but they sure do look threatening.
I seriously doubt if we get out of the 50s Sunday afternoon… and we start the day well down in the 40s. It sure won’t feel like May in Alabama.
MONDAY: We will have to hang on to a chance of showers Monday, especially over the eastern half of the state, as the cold core ULL moves into Georgia. The high will be in the mid 60s.
Then, just a small risk of a lingering shower Tuesday as the upper low moves to South Carolina, and Wednesday and Thursday should be dry with a warming trend.
RACE WEEKEND: Clearly tomorrow will be the most challenging day at Talladega when it comes to weather. Rain is likely most of the day, and will be a problem for qualifying and the Arca 250. It won’t rain all day, but a pretty good percentage of the time it will be wet. The high will be in the 60s.
Rain should end in Talladega in the 11am-1pm time frame Saturday, followed by sunshine during the afternoon hours as the dry slot moves into East Alabama. The Aaron’s 312 might be delayed a bit, but a very good chance the race will be run with a mostly sunny sky.
On Sunday, a few passing showers are likely. No way at this point we can tell you the start/stop times of the showers, but a rain delay is certainly possible during the Aaron’s 499. And, we should remind you some small hail is possible in the showers Sunday due to very cold air aloft. The sky will be generally cloudy, and the day will be very cool with an early morning low near 42, followed by a high only around 60 degrees.
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I had a great time today visiting the 6th graders at Centre Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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