Cool, Wet Weekend Ahead

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COLD CORE UPPER LOW: Yep, these are a “weatherman’s woe”… and one will move right on top of Alabama this weekend making for a challenging forecast. We will lay out the weekend in great detail below, but expect a surprise or two along the way. We note measurable snow is falling over Arkansas for the first time on record during the month of May this morning. This has really been a remarkable system.

Here is the day by day breakdown…

TODAY: Clouds will cover Alabama today, and rain will increase as the day goes on. The radar is pretty quiet now, but upward atmospheric motion should bring periods of rain to most communities by the afternoon. We won’t get out of the 60s, generally speaking, but one or two places could touch 70.

Rain should be widespread tonight, and locally heavy. The NWS in Huntsville has gone with an “aerial flood watch” for all of their counties (Colbert, Cullman, Franklin, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Morgan, De Kalb, Jackson, Madison, Marshall) as rain amounts of over two inches are possible there. Down this way (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden)… rain amounts should be closer to one inch.

TOMORROW: We will begin the day with rain statewide, but a dry slot will work into Alabama from the west, and according the rain should end from west to east during the day. The exact time that rain will end in your neighborhood is very hard to call… the NAM has come in a little slower, but the RPM a little faster with the arrival of the dry slot.

Best estimate for now… the rain will end in Tuscaloosa by 11:00 a.m…. Birmingham by 1:00 p.m… Anniston/Gadsden by 3:00 p.m. The sky will clear, and much of West and Central Alabama should see some afternoon sunshine. Communities near the Georgia border could be dealing with clouds and rain most of the day, however.

Tomorrow will be a very cool May day; the GFS and the NAM are printing a high of only 60 degrees for Birmingham… meaning many communities won’t get out of the 50s. The record lowest maximum temperature for Birmingham tomorrow is 60 degrees set in 1967… and that record could very well be in danger.

SUNDAY: The cold core upper low goes right over us, and some strange things can happen in this situation. First off, the weather Sunday will remain very cool for May. We will begin the day in the 39-43 degree range, and I am not sure we get out of the 50s. Sunday’s record low maximum temperature is also 60 (set in 1917)… that that one could be in danger as well.

We could see a bit of sunshine Sunday, but the day will be generally cloudy, and showers are likely. Due to the very cold air aloft with the upper low, some of the showers could produce some small hail or graupel, even with no thunder or lightning. And, we will also watch for reports of “cold air funnels”. These rarely touch down, and are not really dangerous, but they can happen under a cold core upper low, and can sure look threatening.

NEXT WEEK: The upper low finally moves east of Alabama Monday, but a few showers will remain possible, most likely over the eastern half of the state. Then, just a slight risk of a stray shower Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be dry with a warming trend.

Be sure and see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: The radar is quiet for now, but showers will likely move over the Superspeedway this afternoon, making the day a challenge for qualifying and the Arca 250. The high today will be around 69.

A soaking rain is likely tomorrow morning, but the rain should end early afternoon. We figure the rain could end around the track in the 1-2 p.m. time frame, which should allow enough time for the running of the Aaron’s 312 after the rain delay. Tomorrow will be an amazingly cool day for May… with a high of only 59 degrees.

Sunday will begin with an early morning low around 40 degrees… and once again the high Sunday afternoon will be in the upper 50s. A few passing showers are likely, but the rain won’t be continuous, and the day won’t be a wash-out. So, a good chance they get the Aaron’s 499 in, but a delay or two is likely. Also keep in mind some of the showers around Talladega Sunday could produce some small hail due to the cold air aloft over Alabama.

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I will be going a weather program this morning at Vincent Elementary School…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather