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STILL DRY TODAY: Another quiet morning across Alabama; temperatures are mostly in the 60s and the sky is fair. The day will be rain-free with a mix of sun and clouds, and a high in the mid to upper 80s.
RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT: Rain should enter Northwest Alabama tonight; the most widespread rain should come after 10:00 p.m., but a few scattered showers could break out over West Alabama as early as 6:00 p.m.
The main window for the widespread, heavy rain comes from midnight tonight through noon tomorrow. Rain amounts of at least one inch are likely, with potential for two inches in spots. The NAM is printing 1.02″ for Birmingham. This won’t be enough for any flooding issues. Thunderstorms are a good bet within the rain mass, but severe weather is not expected as the air will be relatively stable.
The rain will end from west to east tomorrow afternoon, and the sun might even peek through late in the day over West Alabama. By tomorrow night rain will be confined to the southern third of Alabama.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: These two days look very nice, with dry, continental air in place. Lots of sunshine both days with early morning lows down in the 50s; the high Sunday will be close to 80, followed by mid 80s Monday.
NEXT WEEK: All of a sudden the global models are showing the need to mention a good chance of rain on Tuesday, and we will go ahead and amend the forecast to reflect this possibility. A tropical low is expected to move up into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and we all know those can bring some very generous rain shields. The GFS doesn’t really develop this into a depression or storm, but tropical waves can be very effective rain producers.
We do note the Canadian GEM model tries to ramp this into a tropical storm off the Alabama coast; it keeps the system south of here through mid-week. That model is an outlier and the solution is discounted for now. One way or another, it is a somewhat low confidence forecast for next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For tonight’s high school games, the weather will be generally dry, although I do think we need to mention some risk of a shower for stadiums over the western third of Alabama. Don’t think the rain will be widespread, but if you are going to a game at a place west of I-65, you might take the rain gear just to be on the safe side. Temperatures will be in the 70s for all of the games.
ALABAMA: Confidence is still high that the rain will be over by the time the Alabama/Colorado State game kicks off in Tuscaloosa (6:00 p.m. CT kickoff). The sky should gradually clear during the game; the kickoff temperature will be near 74 degrees, falling into the 60s by the second half. But, a soaking rain is likely in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning; the rain will end in Tuscaloosa in the 12:00-2:00 p.m. time frame.
AUBURN: For a few fleeting moments we had hope that this game could be be played with little threat of rain, but it now looks like a low pressure wave on the front will keep the rain going in Baton Rouge through tomorrow night. The Auburn/LSU game kicks off at 6:45p CT, and the sky will be cloudy with periods of rain likely. Temperatures will be in the 70s. And, unfortunately, rain is likely much of the day tomorrow in Baton Rouge as well.
UAB: The Blazers take on Northwestern State at Legion Field (2:00 p.m. CT kickoff), and the rain will be ending right around the time the game begins. I believe most of the game will be played rain-free, but like Tuscaloosa, tailgaters will have to deal with a soaking rain Saturday morning. Temperatures will fall from the mid 70s at kickoff into the low 70s by the fourth quarter.
GULF COAST WEATHER: About 5 to 7 hours of sun today on the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and storms around. Then, rain is likely tomorrow and Sunday as the surface front moves to the Gulf Coast and becomes nearly stationary. We had hoped there could be a decent amount of sun Sunday, but now it looks like it will be a mostly cloudy day with occasional showers. And, next week, a tropical low will ramp up the chance of rain again on Tuesday. Bottom line is that today and Monday will be the two brighter days out of the next seven. Highs will be in the 70s on rain days, with 80s today and Monday. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.
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I will be on the road today to Atlanta for an Emmy event tonight, but back in state tomorrow… will be in Tuscaloosa tomorrow night at the Alabama/Colorado State game providing weather support and Jumbotron updates. So… just one video today, but I will post another detailed update here this afternoon, and Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday…
Category: Alabama's Weather