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Showers Return Tomorrow; Cooler Thursday

| 6:19 am October 15, 2013

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WEATHER CHANGES AHEAD: Looks like we will be able to squeeze out one more dry day with a mix of sun and clouds; the high this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 70s for most communities, not too far from average values for October 15 (our average high today is 75).

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The sky over Alabama will be cloudy tomorrow, and showers will move into the state from the west. Seems like the best chance of rain will come tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night; no severe weather, and probably no thunder. Just periods of mostly light rain. The weather will stay mild tomorrow with a high in the 70s.

Thursday will feature clouds and much cooler air; I get the idea we will hover in the low to mid 60s all day, and we will need to mention a chance of light rain at times in the cooler air.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday still looks like a great day, with ample sunshine and a high in the low 70s. A good chance we begin the day in the 40s, but the models aren’t quiet as cold as recent runs as they now want to hold off the coldest air until Sunday and Monday. And, unfortunately the GFS is now coming around to the ECMWF solution, meaning we will have to make some forecast adjustments for the weekend.

RAIN POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY: We will now introduce a chance of rain as the weekend begins with model models on board for a wave coming our way out of Texas with a decent amount of moisture. Saturday now looks like a cloudy day, with periods of rain possible. Impossible to give you specific start/stop times for the rain now, but I would say initially the main window for wet weather will come from 6:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. Saturday; we will be able to narrow that down tomorrow and Thursday. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch or less are expected, and I doubt if we hear much thunder. Temperatures will hold in the 60s all day Saturday with clouds and occasional rain.

Sunday will be dry, but breezy and cool. The sky should be generally sunny with a high in the upper 60s with a cool north wind of 10-15 mph. Then, early Monday morning the GFS is printing a low of 44 degrees for Birmingham. Considering that model has had a warm bias, I fully expect a number of communities over North Alabama to reach the 30s for the first time this season early Monday.

We should be rain-free Monday and Tuesday with a good supply of sunshine both days.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Some scattered light rain is possible at the Superspeedway Thursday with a cloudy sky, but the weather looks great Friday, with a good supply of sunshine and a high near 71 degrees. Unfortunately, as discussed above, we will now have to introduce a chance of rain at times Saturday with a high near 68 degrees. It won’t rain all day, but I figure there will be about 2 to 3 hours of rain at the track, meaning rain delays are very possible Saturday. But, the good news is that Sunday still looks fine with a mostly sunny sky. The high Sunday afternoon will be around 67 with a chilly north breeze of 10-15 mph during the Camping World RV Sales 500. Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 40s at daybreak Sunday as the day begins.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is very quiet; and two dissipating systems are in the East Pacific. The biggest story globally is Typhoon Wipha, which will pass just east of Tokyo today as a category one storm. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning for the pre-K kids at God’s House Kindergarten in Shelby County, and then I will be speaking at Our Lady of the Valley Catholic Church at midday. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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