50/50 Weekend

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After a coolish start to the day with some frost reported across Northeast Alabama including our skywatcher at Black Creek, we should see a beautiful Saturday across Central Alabama before wet weather returns on Sunday. The humidity will be down today with dew points running in the 30s and 40s. Clouds will be an issue for southern Alabama, but with plenty of sunshine for Central Alabama we should see afternoon highs climb into the middle 60s. But the good weather is not expected to stick around long, so enjoy the day.

The frontal system that brought the round of thunderstorms yesterday morning will pull back northward in response to a strong short wave trough coming out of Texas which will generate a surface low in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This low will track northeast across northern Mississippi with the GFS and European models in good agreement on both the track and strength of the surface low. In this scenario, Central Alabama should be in the warm sector as a warm front moves northward tonight and Sunday. Thus, SPC has outlooked an area including Southwest Alabama and much of the Central Gulf Coast for the standard slight risk of severe weather for Day 2, Sunday into early morning Monday. It appears that all modes of severe weather will again be a possibility with the greatest threat coming from damaging wind.

The pattern suggests the warm sector does come all the way northward into North and Central Alabama, however, most of the severe weather parameters appear to be more favorable for severe weather south of Birmingham. GFS and NAM MOS guidance numbers indicate that dew points for Birmingham will only reach the upper 50s. Depending on the strength of the low – again, good model agreement on strength and track – the deeper warmth and moisture could push a little further north putting us more at risk. There’s also the risk of severe weather we see along the warm front itself. So as James notes in the post below, it is certainly a stay tuned situation. See the Blog video for details on the severe weather parameters.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the precipitation in this event could be heavy in places raising the potential for flooding and flash flooding issues. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches could push some of the already swollen rivers upward enough to create some flooding issues. Also with the ground saturated from previous rains, any heavy rain from strong to severe thunderstorms could produce a flash flood threat.

The upper trough comes by Tuesday generally bringing an end to the precipitation with temperatures remaining on the cool side with highs in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. The overall pattern becomes more zonal as a ridge builds into the eastern US behind the exiting trough. This should keep our weather dry as temperatures gradually return to the 70s.

Another developing trough to our west promises to bring another storm system into the picture probably Sunday and Monday as we edge into voodoo country. And the active weather pattern shows no signs of letting up with yet another strong trough poised to affect us around April 19th. We shouldn’t be surprised by this since it is the heart of severe weather season, so be sure to tweak your severe weather safety plan and your resources to make sure you are prepared to receive weather updates and warnings.

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I had a great time at the Birmingham Storytelling Festival at the Virginia Samford Theater last night. The festival continues today at 1 and 7 pm with some great music and fantastic storytelling with tellers like Bobby Norfolk and Andy Offutt Irwin. Special thanks to Norton Dill of the Dill Pickers along with many other folks for putting together what we all hope will become an annual festival for Birmingham. The next Weather Xtreme Video should be posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather