Rain Moving Out for Weekend

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After a dozen or so great days, the weather turned wet yesterday afternoon as rain moved into and across Central Alabama. Rainfall amounts were fairly low for our area, while rainfall amounts further south were much higher. Additional rain and showers developed overnight and those showers were moving through Central Alabama at daybreak. What looked like a fairly wet Saturday may actually turn into a pretty good day even though we are likely to stay mostly cloudy as the rain moves steadily eastward.

The upper air pattern shows a weak trough moving through the overall ridge pattern today which should take the rain chances east and dry out Central Alabama for the rest of the day. We should stay dry Sunday and Monday as the upper ridge builds back over the eastern US. Precipitable water values do not drop a lot, but they do edge downward with values mainly around 1.25 inches. While we can’t completely rule out an isolated shower or two, it does seem likely that Sunday and Monday will be dry with partly cloudy skies. But hold onto your seats, because the pattern will get active next week.

Tuesday, a strong trough will come out of the Rockies and move across the Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. This will be responsible for bringing us another shot of rain and perhaps some thundershowers as well, though, at the moment, there does not appear to be a significant risk for severe weather.

This is where the big changes begin to happen. The GFS carves out a very deep trough with a closed low across the eastern US. This pattern promises to bring some relatively cold air southward into the Southeast US. By the end of the week and perhaps into the weekend, we could see some morning lows dropping back into the 40s. While it is much to early to be definitive about how chilly it might get, it is interesting to note that record lows for later next week for Birmingham are in the lower 40s. We also have the reality that the GFS is much more aggressive with this pattern than the European. The ECMWF develops a trough, but it does not close off a low over the southern Appalachians as the GFS does. But whichever model has the closest solution, it sure seems a pretty good bet we’ll see temperatures that will be below seasonal averages into next weekend.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS maintains the closed low feature in the vicinity of the Outer Banks through May 20th before the pattern flattens out somewhat returning us to more seasonal temperatures. In light of model differences and the fact that the closed low feature depicted by the GFS is so strong, there is a good possibility that we see the actual pattern much closer to a compromise between the two model solutions. But in light of the fact that we’ve seen a good deal of below average weather for much of 2014, the GFS solution might not be too far off.

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I’ll be emceeing the Buck Creek Festival in Old Town Helena today with music on stage from 10 am to 10 pm. Our headliner this evening is U.S Band, so be sure to come out to Helena for a great free festival with lots of great food, marvelous music, great activities for the kids, and some superb crafts. If you time it just right, you might even see me make a complete fool of myself on the Water Wobble! I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather