Somewhat Unsettled Today and Sunday

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Looking like a bit of an unsettled weekend for Central Alabama with the presence of that pesky upper trough axis that is currently just to our west. This positioning puts us in the better area for lift for today, but as the radar shows, we’re looking at scattered showers that remain fairly small with rainfall that occurs expected to be light for any one spot. Clouds and the presence of showers will help to keep temperatures below seasonal values with highs mainly in the middle 80s with perhaps some breaks in the clouds here and there allowing a little sunshine. One of those days where the forecast and weather includes everything from sunshine to rain!

For beach goers, look for 4 to 6 hours of sunshine along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coast where showers will be occurring off and on today and Sunday. Air temperatures will continue to be in the middle and upper 80s as water temperature values remain in the lower and middle 80s. Looks like a return to more scattered showers into next week.

In the tropics, Bertha remained somewhat disorganized as it was approaching Puerto Rico. The storm is likely to remain disorganized for the next 36 hours as it ingests some dry air as well as interacting with the land areas of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, as it begins to move away from that area, conditions will improve with water temperatures going up which is likely to allow the system to gain strength and perhaps become a hurricane as it recurves around the subtropical high in the Atlantic and the pesky trough over the eastern US. The recurvature should keep it in the Atlantic away from the US coastline.

The upper trough maintains a presence in our area into the first of next week, so showers remain a possibility but I think we get back to something more closely matching a summertime pattern with daily showers driven mainly by afternoon heat. With the weak trough in place, can’t completely rule out an isolated shower at almost any time. But as the trough does weaken some and the upper flow becomes more northwesterly, we should experience some upper level drying that will suppress showers. But we still maintain small chances for those daily showers with no appreciable relief from the overall dryness.

The northwesterly flow also brings the potential for large thunderstorm clusters to form well off over the Central Plains and move into the Southeast US. Certainly no skill at forecasting a specific threat for a specific spot, mainly need to be aware of this potential in the forecast which might require last minute adjustments.

Voodoo country – week two of the forecast – remains fixed on the trend of keeping a fairly substantial trough over the eastern US while the westerlies remain well into Canada. But by the end of the period the ridge becomes stronger across the southern tier of the US keeping isolated showers a daily occurrence.

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I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video on Sunday morning by 8 am or so. Enjoy the day as we stay a tad below early August temperatures. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather