Another Summer-ish Day

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We saw a mix of sun, clouds, and scattered showers yesterday, and today should be a lot like that. The weak frontal boundary will continue to wash out and just a slight amount of drying in the atmosphere should reduce our chances for showers as we head into the upcoming work week. But for today look for scattered showers once again with our afternoon highs reaching close to 90.

There is not much change occurring in the upper atmosphere over the next few days. A weak trough passing today will assist with some shower production keeping the showers primarily scattered as moisture settles south of the Birmingham area. Following the moisture, the better chances for scattered showers will move into South Alabama while North and Central Alabama experience just enough of a drop in precipitable water for showers to become isolated, so that most of us stay dry. Morning lows will continue in the 68 to 72 range while afternoon highs will dance with 90 degrees on most days.

While the main westerlies continue to hug the Canadian border for much of the week, there is a strong trough passing well to the north of us at the end of the week which will drag a front toward Alabama by Thursday. Because the main dynamics continue to stay very far north, the front is likely to stall in our vicinity. This could impact our weather for Friday with better chances for showers and storms. While the main dynamics remain well north the GFS and ECMWF seem to be in fairly good agreement on bringing drier and cooler air into our area with a large surface high to our north and northeast. This is verging on voodoo, and I would like to see the upper flow become less zonal to support the idea of the front pushing through our area.

The tropics are ramping up a little. Three areas are being watched, but the newest area just coming off the African continent has the greatest potential for developing into a full blown tropical system in the next five days. In the eastern Pacific, Norbert is weakening as it remains offshore of the Baja Peninsula and is likely to come ashore as a depression in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

For beach enthusiasts, it will be warm and humid with a mix of sun and clouds each day. Sunshine should still be fairly good with 4 to 7 hours each day. Rain chances will be a little above average each day with the best chance for rain during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs will be in the upper 80s each afternoon while lows will be in the upper 70s. Water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 86 degrees.

As we saw yesterday with the GFS, the pattern is likely to become active in week two with a fairly strong trough developing again over the eastern US around the 16th. And the GFS keeps this idea of the troughiness in place out through the 22nd. This could certainly spell some much cooler days if this verifies correctly.

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I expect James Spann to be have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Glad to see Alabama and Auburn top their opponents yesterday as well as the Florida State Seminoles. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather