One Day Warm-Up; Much Colder Tomorrow

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NICE WARM-UP TODAY: We are starting the day with temperatures generally in the 26-32 degree range, but with sunshine in full supply we project a high in the low 60s this afternoon. It will be the warmest day out of the next seven.

SHARPLY COLDER TOMORROW: A cold front will pass through in dry fashion tonight, and tomorrow will be windy and colder with a high only in the low 40s; a northwest wind averaging 15-25 mph will make it feel colder. The wind will die down tomorrow night, and by Friday morning we project a low between 17 and 22 degrees across North/Central Alabama. Friday will remain cold and dry with a high in the low to mid 40s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We start it off with a sunny day on Saturday; the morning low will be in the 20s, and we will rise to near 50 degrees by afternoon. Then, yet another dry cold front blasts through Saturday night, and Sunday promises to be a very frigid day. We start the day somewhere between 15 and 20, and the high will be only in the mid 30s despite a sunny sky. Just about everybody north of Birmingham will stay below freezing all day.

By daybreak Monday we will drop into the 15-20 degree range again with a clear sky and light wind.

TRICKY FORECAST NEXT WEEK: The forecast next week is a can of worms with little confidence in any specific solution as a cold, unsettled pattern develops. Clouds will increase late Monday ahead of a wave in the southern branch of the jet stream, and we will forecast periods of rain on Tuesday with a surface low passing just north of the state.

Here are the two forecast challenges…

*Will there be a change from rain to snow Tuesday night? Colder air will be pulled into the state in the wake of the surface low passage, and this is a possibility. However, for now I think the logical forecast is just to mention a chance of snow flurries over the northern third of the state with little impact. There is basically no consistency in the track of the surface low at this point, however. Some light accumulation could occur somewhere over North Alabama, or there could be no snow at all.

*Will a second wave bring snow to Alabama Wednesday? The 06Z GFS shows a decent snow event for much of Alabama Wednesday afternoon and evening with Arctic air in place. However, often with cold air over Alabama these waves are shunted well to the south, and we wind up with nothing.

As the graphic says, this is NOT a forecast, just an idea to watch in coming days. We really won’t have much clarity in the situation until the weekend, and there is a real chance Alabama will not see any significant snow. But, at least the snow lovers have some hope here. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM TOUR: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama rolls along; we will be in Reform tomorrow evening. Just drop by anytime from 4:00 until 6:30… you can watch me do weather live on ABC 33/40, get some free stuff to take home, and have a chance to win several NOAA Weather Radios we will be giving away. If you need your weather radio programmed or checked, bring it by and we will be glad to help.

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I have a severe weather safety program today at ALAGASCO in Pell City… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warmer

Category: Alabama's Weather