SPC Expands Enhanced Risk Area; Several School Systems Dismissing Early

The morning update to the SPC severe weather outlook expanded the enhanced risk area to include much of the northwestern half of Alabama. The enhanced risk area now extends from Louisville KY to just east of Memphis and Nashville to Jackson MS and just east of Birmingham to just north of Mobile.

The tornado risk is basically unchanged, but the 30% damaging wind risk was expanded. The hail risk remains fairly low.

Parents: please note than many school systems over West and Northwest Alabama are dismissing early. Check with your sources to determine when.

Here is a weather update as we approach the 11 o’clock hour:

…instability is increasing across Mississippi, especially along the Mississippi River, south of Memphis. Storms are now well established in this zone.
…storms are growing in scale over southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi.
…the sun is out at least partially across much of Central Alabama. The temperature has already reach 70F at Calera and is at 68F at Birmingham and 69F at Tuscaloosa.
…dewpoints are now in the lower 60s west of I-65.
…the airmass over Mississippi is capped, meaning there is an inversion that is suppressing convection and even clouds. This is allowing the kettle to slowly simmer. It will reach the boiling point soon.
…the SPC just said that they will be issuing a tornado watch in the next couple of hours for a large part of Missisisppi and part of eastern Louisiana.
…the NWS in Birmingham will release a special upper air balloon at 11 a.m.
…we will have to see how the storms ahead of the line evolve and how the timing of the main line of storms shakes out.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather