Archive for November 17th, 2012
Nothing but severe clear across Alabama and much of the Southeast this afternoon. High pressure remains in control of the eastern half of the United States. The area of high pressure is producing a lot of subsidence, and that is why there are so few clouds across our part of the country. We do see some clouds across the eastern Carolinas and the Florida Peninsula. This activity is associated with a low pressure trough off the Southeast coast; that has some thunderstorm activity with it off shore. These clouds have been working slowly westward through out the day. Some of the clouds could be working there way into Alabama overnight, especially in the southeastern counties. If that happens, overnight lows could stay up a bit as the clouds could act like a blanket for some areas trapping in heat .
For areas that do not see any cloud cover, once the sun goes down temperatures will fall quickly. With calm winds and clear skies radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to fall back down into the 30s overnight. Average low around 38 for central Alabama. Some areas could be much cooler, and do not be surprised to see some widespread patchy frost again in the morning.
I know coaches take em “one game at a time”…. but it is our job to look ahead. The biggest sports event in our state is one week from today, and global models are looking good. Below is output for Saturday 11/24 from both the GFS and the ECMWF…
This suggests a sunny day with a high in the 60s. Sure, this could change, but things look great for now.
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You just can’t find anything bad about the weather for Alabama for the next week. We’re dealing with a trough over the Southeast which will migrate to the East Coast. A short wave moving through the southern Canadian Provinces will drop into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and develop a nice Nor’ester off the Carolina coast Wednesday. But fortunately for us, all of that development is well to our east placing us in great weather through Monday with lows generally in the 40s and highs in the 60s, a bit cooler on Sunday morning, though.
That trough dropping in out of the Great Lakes on Tuesday is likely to bring a round of clouds to our area. While there is a small risk that we might see a small shower or two, I think we stay mainly dry.
Once that trough moves off on Wednesday, we get into a nearly zonal flow pattern with some minor disturbances traveling through the pattern. These disturbances will have very little if any moisture to deal with, so we stay dry from Wednesday through next weekend with perhaps some passing clouds from time to time. And temperatures will be fairly nice with cool mornings as lows dip into the 40s but warm afternoons with highs generally in the 60s, perhaps nudging pretty close to 70.
With the pattern pretty much tranquil, SPC has no areas outlooked for severe weather for the next five days, and the tropics are quiet as we wind down the 2012 hurricane season.
Looking out into voodoo country, there appears to be an interesting wet pattern developing with a deep trough along the West Coast. This results in a pronounced southwesterly flow over the Southeast US bringing us a good supply of Pacific moisture. This pattern is also a warm one, so we could see a warm, wet period toward the end of November as we enter December.
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I’m enjoying a short visit to Chicago to see my daughter and doing the touristy things. Had a great time at Navy Pier yesterday taking photos and riding the big ferris wheel. And how great the new James Bond film was especially seeing it on the IMAX screen at Navy Pier. Looking forward to a little football today. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.