Watching for Don

Odds are that the current disturbance in the tropical Atlantic has a good chance of becoming our next Tropical Storm. The next name on the list is Don.

The system is about 1500 miles east of the southernmost Windward Islands. It is pretty far to the south, like Bret was, but it is expected to gain latitude as it pushes westward. The subtropical high is pretty far to the east with a trough over the eastern United States, which should open a lane for the system to curve around the high and miss the United States.

The GFS keeps the system very far to the east, but the European and Canadian and some of the other models bring it close to the islands of the northeastern Caribbean this weekend.

The system is fighting some drier air to its north and northwest, but embedded in a swath of decent moisture for now. It is experiencing 15-20 knots of shear for now, but that is forecast to relax as it pushes west northwest.

The system has some cyclonic banding, and its cloud pattern has remained fairly steady after it began to organize yesterday.

The GFS shows a moderate tropical storm well east of the Bahamas next Monday night, and keeps it only a threat to Bermuda.

The European takes a much weaker system to the southeastern Bahamas by next Monday. A weaker system can steer further west, pushed by the easterly flow. That is a worrisome scenario for South Florida. The European doesn’t strengthen it, but that would be a favorable area for a major hurricane to develop and impact South Florida.

The Canadian takes the storm to near Wilmington NC as a strong tropical storm by next Thursday night.

We have a new feature on AlabamaWX. We will have real time updates to the situation in the Atlantic during the entire hurricane season, updating it immediately each time that a new Tropical Weather Outlook is issued by the National Hurricane Center. This will allow you to immediately check the latest developments in the Atlantic.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical