White Christmas????

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A BRIGHTER DAY: Before we get to the situation next week, the good news is that today will indeed be a brighter day for Alabama with cold, dry air in place. Quite frankly, however, clouds have lingered longer than expected, but the lower clouds should clear out during the next few hours. The sub-tropical jet stream is pushing a layer of high clouds over the state, but they should be thin enough to allow a decent amount of sunshine. The high today will be in the upper 40s for most places.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Clouds will increase tomorrow in advance of the next wave in the Gulf of Mexico, and that system should bring a few periods of mostly light rain around here Friday. Like recent systems, the heaviest rain will be over the southern half of the state; up this way Friday looks rather raw with a chilly east wind and some rain at times. Highs on Friday will be in the 40s.

Cold air settles into the state over the weekend with highs only in the low to mid 40s. A strong vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper trough will bring some risk of snow flurries to North Alabama Saturday; we might consider sticking that in the forecast later today. But, the moisture will be very shallow and they won’t amount to much if they happen. Sunday should feature a mix of sun and clouds, with temperatures north of Birmingham holding in the 30s much of the day.

SNOW FOR CHRISTMAS? As we have opined here for several days, all of the players are on the field for the potential for a pre-Christmas winter storm for parts of the Deep South. Confidence is growing that this will indeed happen, but nobody, and I mean nobody, at this stage of the game can tell you specifics. I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the 06Z GFS look; it hints a major low roaring out of the Gulf of Mexico, with rain across Alabama Wednesday night changing to snow during the day Thursday (Christmas Eve), followed by a blast of very cold air for Christmas Day with snow on the ground. But, this is NO forecast, this is simply model output. We could see all rain here. The storm might be too far south. But, let’s just say this is our best chance at some decent snow around Christmas in the 31 years I have been doing weather around here. It will be a fun week to be watching the weather in Alabama.

WHICH BRINGS TO MIND: This is Christmas, you know, so let’s be kind and gentle on the blog comments. I to this day don’t understand why the threat of winter weather brings out the haters, trolls, and know-it-alls, but I hope they consider the season. And, with Christmas travel issues possible, the idea of a pre-Christmas storm will be more that fun for many people. Stay tuned…

VOODOO LAND: If we miss the snow at Christmas, by golly the 06Z GFS paints another snow threat for New Year’s Eve. Again, check the video for details.

NINE YEARS AGO TODAY: This is the 9th anniversary of the December 16, 2000 EF4 tornado in Tuscaloosa that killed 11 people. We had John Oldshue on WeatherBrains this week to talk about his experience in that horrible storm, and you can watch our live coverage below:

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

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Busy day here… I have a weather program at Verbena Elementary down in Chilton County this morning, followed by an early afternoon program at Huntingdon Place Elementary in Northport. Sounds like I just might have to find a good BBQ joint in Autauga County between those schools. I will stream the trip from the Storm Chaser, but understand I like the roads less traveled, which means data quality won’t be the best at times. You can see the chaser video stream here on the blog on the upper left.

The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

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