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Updated Snow Projection

| 8:32 am February 11, 2010 | Comments (91)

Based on radar/surface/upper air observations to the west, and the 12Z NAM, let’s revise the snow projections a bit. We will continue to adjust this as needed as the storm approaches. We do believe there could be isolated snow amounts to 6 inches over parts of South-Central Alabama, but we won’t be able to identify those spots until the snow bands set up tomorrow morning…

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  1. Jeff says:

    All you have to do is look to the west of us and use your common sense. The ingredients are there for this to be a no brainer.

    Here’s what you need for snow in Alabama.
    1. Cold Air – Check, The cold air has been in place for days. The soil temps are in the 30′s, so most all snow will stick.
    2. Moisture from the Gulf – Check, with any accumulating snow you need a low pressure system to form in the Gulf and the last I checked, the low is in perfect position for south central and even central Alabama to get accumulating snow.
    3. Last but not least, the moisture and cold air have to be in place at the same time – Check, In most cases the cold air doesn’t come into Alabama until the moisture has gone or is tappering off. This time the cold air is already here, so any precip that starts Thursday night and Friday morning will be all snow.

    The Weather People have let us down so many times, but I’d almost bet my next paycheck that they have this one dead on. I’d say from Bham to Montevallo, we could see 1-3 inches with some areas getting close to 4 inches. Cities like Alabaster, Calera, Chelsea are those likely areas to get more accumulations. Then from Clanton to Montgomery, 3-5 inches with pockets of 6+ inches somewhere in the mix.

  2. Rockyj Vestavia/Bluff Park says:

    Bill in Vigo….Are you still here?

    Bill in Vigo… How far out of Piedmont are you? I always appreciate your posts and your easy going manner. Just cannot pinpoint your location. Are you between Piedmont and Gadsden? What is the main road?

    By the way, it was 26.2 her on the hill this morning. Was still there are 7:00 when we left for work.

  3. willmount says:

    What was the reason in Jan where B’ham got missed and Huntsville got snow at the last second?

  4. John says:

    AS MENTIONED…CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH IN THE FORECAST AT
    THIS JUNCTURE…BUT I WOULD THROW A FEW SUGGESTIONS INTO THE
    THINKING. SINCE THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER NORTH…I HAVE
    BEEN IMPRESSED WATCHING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS MOST HAVE HELD
    STRONG IN KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH. I WILL SAY THAT
    ALL BUT ONE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION SHOWS A DEEPER UPPER LOW AND A
    LITTLE BETTER PHASE WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
    NWS B’ham

    A SLIGHTLY DEEPER GULF SURFACE LOW…AND HENCE MORE WINTER PRECIP
    FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. IN FACT SOME OF THE TOTALS WERE
    SUGGESTING 2 PLUS INCHES NORTH OF BHM AND A 5 TO 6 INCH RANGE IN
    THE MGM AREA. SOME ENSEMBLES HAD EVEN MORE. THIS WOULD ALIGN THEM
    WITH THE CONSISTENT…YET…NORTHERN OUTLIER CANADIAN GEM MODEL.
    HAVEN`T GONE AS FAR AS TO INCLUDE SUCH TOTALS IN THE
    FORECAST…NOR WOULD I HAVING GROWN UP IN THE SOUTHEAST…BUT I DO
    THINK IT IS NOTEWORTHY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY OVER
    THE NEXT FEW RUNS…ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND EVEN
    FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. THAT COULD QUICKLY TURN A MINOR TO
    MODERATE SNOW EVENT INTO A HEAVY MORE CRIPPLING SNOW.

  5. DR says:

    Does everyone realize “south Tuscaloosa” is 60+ miles south of Birmingham??? I’m thinking south Tuscaloosa gets at least 3 inches!!! Any thoughts??

  6. jomo says:

    btw the storm is already dropping some good snow over tx. some of the outlying areas of the low seem to be sending reflectivity this way a little earlier than projected.

  7. Jennifer says:

    With the updated models, what do ya’ll think the chances are of the NWS extending the Winter Storm warning north?? I would love to not go to work tomorrow and thats what they will go by.

  8. Tyler Williams says:

    watch out BHM the models are pushing .75 of liquid there on the latest run. And .25 everywhere else

  9. DR says:

    Willmount,

    Excellent point!! So if they are forecasting 5+ inches for Montgomery and it misses Montgomery…Where does it go??? Answer: Birmingham!!!!!!!

  10. tatooreb says:

    SNOW LOVERS WILL LOVE THE 12Z GFS. THE LOW IS FURTHER NORTH, PRECIP FIELD MORE SOLID!!!!! IF IT KEEPS INCHING NORTH WE’RE IN FOR A GOOD STORM.

  11. Howdy says:

    Hmm.. 12z higher QPF moving north. James may have to move that 2-5 line.. heh

  12. John P says:

    I think it’s going to trend north!

  13. willmount says:

    DR, your the winner.

  14. DR says:

    Howdy,
    As I said earlier, James will move the line northward very carefully…He rather increase it than decrease it… Nice move!!!

  15. Andrew says:

    @ Rockyj

    I am not Bill in Vigo but growing up in Piedmont I can tell you that Vigo is East of Piedmont between Piedmont and Borden Springs. Mostly known as Vigo Road, it is Calhoun County Road 70.

  16. Rockyj Vestavia/Bluff Park says:

    Jennifer… i believe in one of the earlier posts a NWS bulletin indicated that the warnings/watches/etc would be revised later in the morning. Whether the Winter Storm Warning moves North will depend on what they see to the West and right now that is pretty impressive. Like many have stated, it is just about time to start looking out the window, which these days includes our big window..Radar.

  17. BRANDON IN ATLANTA says:

    I’m originally from Vidalia Georgia located 90 miles west of Savannah. Vidalia’s last accumulation of a dusting was in 2002. If this pans out, this could be the first descent snowfall for Vidalia in over 10 years. Savannah has not received accumulating snow in 20 years. While this is a big deal for north and central Alabama and Georgia, this could be historic for South Alabama and South Georgia.

    What is Ken Cook smoking up in Atlanta. That dude forecasts on such a conservative level its sick. I’m going to have to give props to WSB though here in Atlanta. They have been screaming the snow chances for a week now. All be it, I think they have been following the NWS in peachtree city.

  18. DR says:

    Thank you Willmount!! I knew where you were headed with that statement!!

  19. jomo says:

    Where is the advisory? I believe they’re thinking of dropping a winter storm watch instead of a WWA.

  20. Rockyj Vestavia/Bluff Park says:

    Thanks, Andrew!

  21. MJ says:

    Montgomery is not going to be missed by the snow. No chance of that. There is, however, a better chance that North AL will see at least an inch. The storm in TX is overperforming. I think the numbers for accumulation will be bumped up again later today.

  22. Wthrlvr says:

    I have a hunch that this will be the best snow for Alabama in the last 10 years……my hunches are usually right. We will have to wait and see, but expect the track to inch northward as the event approaches. Tuscaloosa, Bham and Anniston will be in good shape for all the snow lovers.

  23. Tim K says:

    The moisture field is further north–

    If one goes by this northward model trend, then significant snow is expected from 1-20 south.

    GFS
    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_030m.gif

  24. Tyler Williams says:

    Atlanta is moving on board and quick:

    .UPDATE…
    UPDATED TO ADD WINTER STORM WATCH TO SW COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST
    PRECIP EXPECTED. TWEAKED TEMP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST
    THINKING. 12Z MODELS COMING IN AND SHOWING A MORE DISTURBING
    SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. 12Z NAM IN PARTICULAR MORE AGGRESSIVE
    WITH QPF OVERALL AND SHOWING A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS I-20
    INTO ATLANTA METRO DURING THE MORNING. YOU CAN ALSO SEE THIS
    SCENARIO WITH THE 06Z GFS. WHILE TOTAL QPF IN THIS BAND REMAINS
    0.10-0.25 INCHES…A 10 OR 12 TO 1 SNOW RATIO SUPPORTS WARNING
    CRITERIA /GREATER THAN 2 INCHES/ SNOW OVER AREAS SOUTH OF ROME TO
    GAINESVILLE LINE. FAR SOUTH COUNTIES / SOUTH OF AMERICUS TO
    WASHINGTON LINE/ MAY STAY IN MID 30S IF NAM IS RIGHT DECREASING
    HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL.

    WILL BE WAITING FOR 12Z GFS AND HPC WINTER WX GRIDS BEFORE
    PROCEDING WITH FURTHER GRID UPDATES.

  25. DR says:

    Florence, Alabama just had the biggest snow in 15 years this past monday… We are about to experience the same event tomorrow..

  26. CAM IN JASPER says:

    So, How Are The Snow Chances For The Jasper Area Looking Now????

  27. john says:

    Should have higher snow totals up into Central al due to temps as well..
    The lower temps will result in higher snow to liquid equivalent ratios.

  28. K30KNIGHT says:

    Refresh and see new update above. We may have a good amout of snowfall in central Alabama. I hope schools make a call by evening so I can make plans.

  29. Mirandi says:

    Andy – I agree….we need a better chance for Etowah County!!!!

    tmb – how does the snow dance go? I need to start doing it!

  30. jason says:

    Im hoping for about 4 inches just above anniston, can anybody give me a good gues on that location?????????????

  31. jason says:

    :) let it snow baby!

  32. Walker says:

    Jasper guna get how much?

  33. NanaDe says:

    What about southern Cullman County? we want snow here tooo!! Looks a little better now that maybe we will get to at least see some fall.

  34. Phil says:

    Anyone got a GFS snowfall accumulation map?

  35. Mike says:

    Thank God someone in the South knows how to forecast the weather. The weather guys or ‘actors’ in Atlanta, are the worst ever. They still think nothing but flurries for Atlanta. I think you can pretty much transfer whatever happens in Birmingham to Atlanta.

  36. brent in Atlanta says:

    Mike, are they still saying that? They can’t be…Ken and Glen were complete jokes last night…

  37. Bama says:

    Montgomery here – local weatherman here is saying don’t be suprise to see 6-8″ tomorrow. Haven’t seen that much snow since I lived up north on Lake Michigan.

    Either way I’m headed out of town in the early am to a warm sandy beach for the next few days – enjoy!

  38. Bama says:

    Montgomery here – local weather guy saying 6-8″ tomorrow. Haven’t seen that much snow since I lived up on Lake Michigan. Either way heading out of town tomorrow to a nice sunny warm beach. Enjoy.

  39. MzKelly~N~Jasper says:

    So who wants to guess when they will shut down the blog?..lol

  40. Alan says:

    What Spann meant to say: http://bit.ly/9BlQVm

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