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Severe Storms Possible Thursday Night

| February 21, 2012 @ 6:19 am

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ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES: A weakening disturbance is passing through Alabama this morning, and some patchy light rain is falling over the northern counties as I write this during the pre-dawn hours. These isolated showers will end later this morning, and we should see intervals of sunshine this afternoon with a high in the mid 60s.

TOMORROW: We rise into the low 70s tomorrow with a mix of sun and clouds, and another impulse will bring some risk of a shower, or even a thunderstorm late in the day, mainly over North Alabama. SPC has low end 5 percent probabilities in place with this feature due to the possibility of some hail in stronger cells that form. But again, much of the day will be dry.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE IN THE WEEK: We hit the mid 70s Thursday as the warming trend continues, and energy in the northern and southern stream will phase up west of the state, setting the stage for some rough weather Thursday night.

It actually looks like the day Thursday will be dry, with a partly sunny sky along with an increasing south breeze. A capping inversion should keep us generally rain-free.

The main window for showers and storms now looks to be from about 7:00 p.m. Thursday until 6:00 a.m. Friday. The NAM continues to suggest as the cap erodes late Thursday afternoon to the west, storms will develop rapidly, becoming strong to severe across the Mid-South. These storms will move into Alabama Thursday night into the pre-dawn hours Friday. Surface based CAPE values, possibly over 1,000 j/kg, are certainly high enough for severe storms, and the forecast shear values suggest potential for a few rotating storms.

Bottom line is that all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Keep in mind there could be some adjustments with the risk and timing as the event gets closer, so keep an eye on these discussions for possible changes. But, it will be another night when you want to be close to a good source of severe weather warnings, and we all know an outdoor siren is no way of getting a warning in the middle of the night when your family is asleep. See this page for our suggest ways of getting warnings.

Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I have stated that I will no longer say “this is event is NOTHING like April 27”. I can say that about every severe weather threat on my watch for the rest of my life, most likely. I think the people of Alabama clearly understand this now. There won’t be any more April 27 type events for a long time, but there will be many tornado threats every year, and we have to pay attention to all of them. It just takes one tornado for that event to become one families “April 27”.

FRIDAY: The 00Z model runs are slower, showing rain and storms finally pushing out of Alabama in the 6-9 a.m. time frame Friday. We will forecast slow clearing Friday afternoon with a cool north breeze and a high back in the 50s.

WEEKEND FORECAST: The weekend will be dry, with ample sunshine both days. The high Saturday will be in the upper 50s, followed by low 60s Sunday. We will be near, or just below freezing both mornings.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture returns early in the week, and there will be some risk of showers Monday, and possibly Tuesday, but not much confidence in a specific solution due to model inconsistencies. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

STORM ALERT 2012: We are scheduled to make a stop in Calhoun County at Pleasant Valley this Thursday night, but due to the severe weather threat that show might have to be moved… we will make a decision later today.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode, that features the director of the Storm Prediction Center, Russ Schneider. He was very kind to spend an hour with us.

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I will be up in Walker County this morning speaking to a group of senior adults… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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