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Much Colder Early Next Week

| 5:59 am December 6, 2012

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MILD THROUGH SUNDAY: Today will be another day with temperatures well above average for early December; both the NAM and the GFS are printing a high of 72 today for Birmingham with a mix of sun and clouds. Tomorrow the good ole “wedge” could impact East Alabama, with some communities near the Georgia border possibly seeing a high in the upper 50s, but the rest of the state will be mild with upper 60s for the I-65 corridor, and low 70s for West Alabama. The sky will be generally cloudy, but the sun could peek out at times.

Not much change for the weekend. Very mild Saturday and Sunday with a high in the low 70s. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and a shower or two could pop up both days, but they should be few and far between.

BIG CHANGE: A dynamic upper air system will drive a strong surface cold front through Alabama Monday morning. Ahead of the front, a band of showers and storm thunderstorms are likely with rain amounts of around 1/2 inch for most places. The primary window for the rain should come from about midnight Sunday night through 9:00 a.m. Monday, and for now the chance of organized severe weather looks low with limited instability values and marginal lapse rates and helicity values. No doubt some of the storms will be strong with gusty winds, but generally speaking at this point the overall severe weather risk looks low.

Temperatures Monday should go the wrong way. We could very well begin the day, during the pre-dawn hours, in the 60s, but after the storms pass we fall through the 50s, and could very well reach the 40s by the afternoon with an icy north wind.

Then, we go below freezing early Tuesday morning of next week with lows in the 20s. A light freeze is possible Wednesday morning as well.

Then, on Thursday, the 00Z GFS shows a robust rain event for the state thanks to a surface low lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Another cold shot is likely before Christmas, but how cold, and exactly how and when it gets here will be up for debate until we get closer. The 00Z GFS actually shows a significant severe weather setup around December 18, followed by a shot of much colder air on the 19th with highs only in the 30s and some risk of scattered light snow flurries. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details and all of the graphics.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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