Fabulous February Weather

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

MORE NICE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY: If you like the weather today, you will love the forecast for tomorrow and Wednesday. Lots of sunshine; afternoon highs in the mid 60s tomorrow, and low 70s on Wednesday. Some low level moisture will begin to return on Wednesday, so there could be a few cumulus clouds around during the day, but no rain.

ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT? Not much change in our thinking for the rest of the week. Another strong, negative tilt upper trough will move out into the nation’s heartland on Thursday, and a deep surface low will be between Des Moines and St. Louis. We will highlight showers and storms on Thursday, and some of them could be strong to severe. Here are a few severe weather parameters from the 12Z run of the NAM for Thursday afternoon:

Surface Based CAPE: 504 j/kg
Lifted Index: -2.5
SWEAT Index: 387
850 mb winds: 61 knots
500 mb winds: 80 knots

Using the BUFKIT analysis program, severe weather parameters are even more impressive off the 12Z run of the GFS (SB CAPE over 1000, LI below -4)…

So, it looks like instability will be much more impressive for this system. We really can’t determine the main threat until it gets its act together on the east side of the Rocky Mountains Wednesday, but helicity values sure look sufficient for rotating thunderstorms and a few isolated tornadoes. In terms of the time of day… the main band of storms will be in here during the afternoon and evening hours, when the air is most unstable.

FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: Cooler and drier air rolls in here on Friday, and the weekend ahead will be dry but rather chilly. The 12Z model runs have come in colder; looks like a high Saturday only in the 50 to 55 degree range, followed by a pretty decent freeze Sunday morning.

LONG RANGE: Not much faith in the GFS beyond seven days… I would imagine we will have a number of strong storm systems to deal with as we get into March, followed by sharp but temporary cold snaps. No way of resolving these systems right now.

SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Publix or Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.

WEATHER BRAINS: We will be recording a new WeatherBrains show tonight… that is our 30 minute weekly netcast. See the all new WeatherBrains web site here, and you can listen to last week’s show while you are there if you missed it.

I sure enjoyed my visit today to Lupton Jr. High School, in the northwest part of Walker County near Prospect and Nauvoo. Watch for those 5th and 6th graders today on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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