Severe Weather Threat Thursday

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

FINE FEBRUARY WEATHER: More beautiful weather is our weather headline for today and tomorrow as dry air remains in place; look for ample sunshine and a high in the mid 60s today and low 70s tomorrow. Get out and enjoy it if you can.

LOOKING TO THURSDAY: No real change in the thinking for Thursday; SPC has defined a risk of severe weather for all of Alabama now, with the risk extending from Little Rock and Shreveport all the way to the coast of the Carolinas.

Here are some selected severe weather parameters for Birmingham valid Thursday evening around 6:00 p.m…

Surface Based CAPE: 617 j/kg
0 to 3 km Helicity: 655 m2/s2
Surface dewpoint: 63
SWEAT Index: 400
850mb wind: 60 knots
500mb wind: 76 knots

The model runs generally have the surface low somewhere between Des Moines, Iowa and Milwaukee, Wisconsin Thursday afternoon, which is a little far to the north, but we certainly have had big events with a low in that position. One issue is the potential for morning rain and storms on Thursday with a northward moving warm front; if the rain is widespread during the morning hours, often the air can’t recover by afternoon for the “big show”. That would lessen the chance of a big severe weather event, and there is some hint of morning rain and storms in model output.

But, most all of the severe weather parameters are in place, and we have to mention a chance of severe weather statewide. At this point it looks like the best chance of severe storms will come from about 3:00 p.m. through 10:00 p.m. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few isolated tornadoes will be possible.

FRIDAY/THE WEEKEND: We will see sunshine returning Friday with highs in the 60s. But, the upper trough will sharpen over the eastern third of the nation over the weekend, which will pull colder air down into Alabama. We might have a hard time reaching the low 50s on Saturday, and freezing temps are likely early Sunday morning. I sure get the idea low clouds will roll into Alabama on Saturday, making for a blustery day. If we do remain cloudy on Saturday, I doubt if we see 50.

The first few days of next week look dry at this point, and the GFS does not show any more severe weather threats (beyond Thursday) for the next seven to 10 days.

STORM ALERT 2007: Tonight is your last chance to see your annual severe weather awareness show… we will be at the Bessemer Civic Center, just off the Academy Drive exit on I-59/20. The doors open at 5:00, the show begins at 7:00. We will have t-shirts for the first 500 people who show up, and we will also be giving away 20 NOAA Weather Radio receivers. You will see some great Alabama weather stories, and you can also meet our entire weather team. Bring the whole family… we look forward to seeing you tonight.

GREAT JOB: Dr. Roy Spencer, Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, was on CNBC this morning letting the world know that a vast majority of climate scientists don’t agree with the man-made global warming hysteria. Also, thumbs up to CNBC for actually allowing both sides of the story to be told. I wonder how long it will take the media to accuse Dr. Spencer of being paid off by “big oil”, or being a “hillbilly from Alabama”.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.

SPECIAL ABC 33/40 NOAA WEATHER RADIO OFFER: You can purchase a top of the line Midland NOAA Weather Radio at any Publix or Handy TV location in this part of Alabama for only $29.95. These receivers have the new digital technology that allows you to choose the counties for which the alarm sounds. Get more information here.

I will be driving down to Perry County today; I will speak at the daily chapel service at Judson College in Marion. I always enjoy the drive down Alabama Highway 5… we will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon; we hope to see you tonight at the Storm Alert show in Bessemer!

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