Ike Is The Storm To Watch

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ALABAMA IN THE SHORT TERM: We will maintain a chance of scattered showers across Alabama today with a shear axis in place over the state. Nothing really heavy, and nothing widespread. Just keep in mind you might need the umbrella for a short time if you will be outside. Drier air begins to move into the state tomorrow, and we will hang on to a small risk of a shower. Then, our weather should be dry Sunday and Monday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For tonight’s high school games, there is an outside risk of shower, otherwise the sky will be clearing with temperatures falling from the low 80s into the upper 70s. Tomorrow, Auburn hosts Southern Miss at 11:30; we expect a mix of sun and clouds with about a one in four chance of a shower during the game. The kickoff temperature will be near 84 degrees, rising to around 86 by the fourth quarter. Alabama will host Tulane in Tuscaloosa at 6:00; the sky will be generally clear with a kickoff temperature of 86, falling into the upper 70s by the end of the game. UAB will be down in South Florida to play Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton (north of Miami) at 3:00. Hurricane Ike will be too far away to be a factor, thankfully; the sky will be mostly fair with a kickoff temperature of 87 degrees.

HANNA: This tropical storm sucked in lots of dry air yesterday; looks more and more like Hanna will not reach hurricane status before landfall tonight. The point of landfall will be around Wilmington, but there is a large wind envelope, meaning lots of folks all the way from Charleston to Cape Cod during the next 72 hours will be wet and dealing with gusty winds. Winds will be in the 40 to 70 mph range, and might be enough to knock down trees and power lines along the way. Flooding should not be an issue due to the fast motion of the system. Hanna will not have any impact on Alabama.

IKE: Residents of South Florida and the Keys should begin making preparation now for a major hurricane. Ike is 450 miles north of the Leeward Islands, and is a category three hurricane packing sustained winds of 125 mph.

Model agreement is decent, but there are outliers. The GFDL is an outlier to the south, bringing Ike over Cuba. The ECMWF also is an outlier on the south side; it takes Ike into the southern Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the NOGAPS turns Ike northward well before reaching Florida, and is an outlier to the right. Most models, however, take Ike to South Florida where a north turn begins.

The official NHC track also takes Ike into South Florida on Tuesday, with a slow turn to the north once inland over the southern tip of Florida. I think this is the best idea on the table. I also am of the opinion that Ike will not a Gulf of Mexico storm due a strong upper trough forecast to move into the eastern U.S.; the GFS shows that trough picking Ike up and pulling it northeast by the end of next week.

It is important to note that nobody knows exactly what Ike will do at this point; forecasting the track and intensity of a hurricane five days in advance is very challenging. But again, our readers in South Florida, as a course of least regret, need to begin hurricane preparations now. Keep an eye on the blog for updates in coming days.

JOSEPHINE: This tropical storm will continue moving steadily to the west/northwest over the open Atlantic in coming days with no significant change in strength expected. Still way out there.

VOODOO LAND: The 00Z GFS shows a nice cold front moving through in a week; if that happens it will bring a good chance of showers and storms, followed by a nice shot of cooler air for the following weekend (September 13-14).

TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

We will keep you posted on tropical events today… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so!

Category: Uncategorized