Warm & Dry At Midday, But Could We Have A Fly In The Ointment?

COULD WE BREAK A RECORD HIGH TODAY:
The answer to that question could be yes. Currently for Central Alabama, skies are mostly clear and temperatures are already warmer at this point today than at 1PM yesterday. With our weather still being influenced by the ridge, dry and very warm conditions will prevail for the day for most, if not all of us. There may be a very small fly in the ointment…

Click Image to Animate Model Run

Looking at the latest run of the HRRR model for today, it is trying to depict a few isolated showers could develop during the afternoon, especially over the western half of the area. Looking at precipitable water, we do have some 1.4 inch to 1.6 inch values over parts of western and southwestern parts of the area. If any showers form at all today, they would pop up over these areas. Otherwise, expect another dry day today.

BURN BAN AND FIRE ALERT:
A Drought Emergency continues in effect, banning any outdoor burning for the northern two-thirds of the state. A Fire Alert remains in effect for the whole state. Only those counties outside of the Drought Emergency can burn outdoors after obtaining a burn permit from the Alabama Forestry Commission, but these will be restricted and issued on an individual basis. Click here for more information..

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 11:30 AM CDT:

• Birmingham 84
• Tuscaloosa 82
• Gadsden 82
• Anniston 81
• Cullman 82
• Alexander City 81
• Auburn 81
• Selma 82
• Montgomery 82

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY ALERT TODAY:
Both Ozone and Particulate Matter 2.5 levels will be below criteria to raise an Air Quality Alert for the Birmingham metropolitan area today. No actions needed.

NORMS AND RECS FOR TODAY IN BIRMINGHAM:
The normal high for October 18th is 75, while the normal low is 52. The record high for today was set back in 1947 at 86, which should be broken today by a degree or two. The record low was set back in 1948 at 31.

REST OF TODAY:
Mostly clear skies for the rest of your afternoon and evening, with dry conditions, and afternoon highs in the upper 80s, with a few 90s possible. I will mention a very small risk for an isolated shower or two somewhere west of I-65 during the afternoon and early evening hours, but the odds are very slim at about one-in-ten. Tonight will be fair, with mostly clear skies and overnight temperatures in the 60s throughout the Central Alabama area.

TOMORROW’S FORECAST:
Another day with the old record high could be broken. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with very warm conditions prevailing once again. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s with a few 90s possible. There is a small risk for some widely scattered afternoon showers and storms over the northern parts of the area, but once again odds for any one spot getting any precipitation at all will be low at about one-in-eight.

HEADED TO THE BEACH:
Mostly clear and warm through Thursday on the Alabama Gulf Coast, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Highs will be dropping down into the 70s with mostly sunny skies for Friday through the weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

TROPICAL UPDATE:
Nicole has become “post tropical” in the North Atlantic… and a few disturbance east of the Bahamas could develop into a depression soon, but it should remain east of the U.S. as it moves generally northward.

ON THIS DAY IN 1987:
Thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced golf ball size hail at Atlanta, along with wind gusts to 86 mph, and four inches of rain. Damage from the storm was estimated at more than a million dollars. Sunny and mild weather continued across much of the rest of the nation.

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Category: Alabama's Weather