Mix of Sun and Clouds

Alabama is waking up to slightly warmer weather this morning with some clouds sticking around. Most of the clouds will be moving off to the east as an upper trough works its way through the Southeast US. Temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer than the chilly values we saw yesterday morning with readings mainly in the 40s. With sunshine we should see highs climb well into the 60s – upper 60s for much of Central Alabama.

Football weather looks good today. Mississippi State comes to Tuscaloosa to take on the Crimson Tide. Clear skies are expected throughout the game with the temperature around 64 at the 11:00 am CST kickoff, but rising to 70 by the fourth quarter. The Auburn Tigers hit the road to face the Georgia Bulldogs at 2:30 pm CST in Athens. Clouds will obscure the sky throughout the game with the temperature around 60 at kickoff and dropping into the middle 50s by the final whistle.

Mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf coast from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach through the weekend and into next week with highs mostly in the lower 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

Storm Prediction Center has no severe weather expected for the next three days and there’s not going to be many thunderstorms either. Tropical Atlantic is quiet while there is one area of disturbed weather in the Eastern North Pacific. The ECMWF is suggesting the potential for a tropical system in the Caribbean late next week, but the GFS does not depict anything.

The upper trough is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF to cut off over North Georgia on Sunday, but Alabama will be west of that feature so we’ll probably see just a few clouds with highs again into the middle and upper 60s. The surface high remains the prevailing pattern into the first of the week as the upper closed low over North Georgia ejects out to the northeast leaving a trough over the East Coast. We stay dry Monday with highs again in the upper 60s.

Warming begins Tuesday as an upper trough begins to move eastward as it is replaced by an upper ridge for the middle of the week. Interesting that the GFS and ECMWF are in pretty good agreement on the pattern. Look for our high temperatures to climb well into the middle 70s for the middle and end of the week.

By Friday both models develop a strong upper trough with an associated surface low and a cold front coming across the Central US. The GFS is a bit more bullish on the associated rain over the Southeast US than the European is. Because of the need for rain, I’m very hopeful that the GFS is right. Unfortunately, it looks like the precipitation will come in the form of showers and perhaps thunderstorms, so rainfall is not likely to be uniform and give us more than a slight reprieve from the excessively dry conditions. If we can get a reasonable amount of moisture to return with this system, we potentially could see rainfall amounts in the one half to one inch range. Again, not a drought buster, but certainly enough to reduce the wildfire threat. Temperatures are likely to cool off substantially by a week from Sunday as the upper trough moves by putting us under strong northwesterly flow.

Looking into voodoo country, the cut off low over the Southeast US coast will keep us in a northwest flow regime for several days until the upper ridge moves our way around the 22nd/23rd of November. The GFS keeps us in an upper ridge pattern with traveling weather systems well north and well west of us.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme Video here by 7:30 or 8:00 tomorrow morning. Enjoy the day. My team, the Florida State Seminoles, handily defeated Boston College last night, so I’ll be free to watch other games today. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Tags: ANC

Category: Alabama's Weather