Ike Nears The Texas Coast
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I was quite interested to hear of the long gas lines and wild fluctuations in gas prices around Alabama last night.. will be interesting to see what happens during the day today. Needless to say, the refineries will be shut down around Houston today and tomorrow; it remains to be seen what kind of damage will be done to them by Ike.
HERE AT HOME: Our weather still looks generally dry today and tomorrow; any showers will be very isolated. We will be in the upper 80s today, with low 90s possible tomorrow.
Model madness creeps in Sunday into next week; at some point you have to forget the models and simply look out the window; based on the large circulation around Ike I think it is prudent to mention a chance of showers Sunday night and Monday as the circulation center passes north of Alabama on top of the upper ridge. While the heaviest rain will be along an axis from Houston to Fort Smith to Paducah and Pittsburgh, we will at least see a few showers down here.
Right now, our seven day forecast shows drier and cooler air dropping into Alabama Tuesday and Wednesday. The 00Z GFS is in conflict; it has a short wave hanging around here with a chance of showers on both days, especially Wednesday. We won’t change the forecast at this point; that short wave might vanish on future runs.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Most high school stadiums will be dry tonight; there is just a small risk of isolated evening showers. Temperatures will drop from the mid 80s at kickoff to near 80 by the fourth quarter with high humidity levels. On the college circuit, Auburn travels to Starkville to play Mississippi State tomorrow evening (6:00 kickoff)… only a one in five chance of a shower during the game with a kickoff temperature around 86, dropping to 80 by the end of the game. Very similar weather for the Alabama/Western Kentucky game tomorrow night (6:00 kickoff) in Tuscaloosa; mostly fair with only a very slight chance of a shower. The temperature will drop from near 85 at kickoff to 80 by the fourth quarter. UAB will play Tennessee in Knoxville tomorrow morning (11:30 kickoff); the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures rising from 85 at kickoff to 88 during the fourth quarter. Like Tuscaloosa and Starkville, there is only a small risk of a shower during the game.
IKE: Not much change overnight; surface winds are slightly higher, sustained at 105 mph, a category two hurricane. Landfall will be between midnight tonight and 6:00 a.m. tomorrow near Galveston Bay, see the Weather Xtreme video for model graphics and more details.
The big question involves the inner core. We all know the wind diameter in the storm is huge (240 mile diameter hurricane force winds)… but can the eye tighten up before landfall. I think the answer is yes; but nobody knows for sure. The NHC track shows Ike as a category three hurricane at the time of landfall. Preparations are being made for a major hurricane, which is certainly the course of least regret here.
Stay tuned to the blog today for frequent updates on Ike… will be a long day of waiting and watching.
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I will be speaking at C.F.Hard Elementary School in Bessemer today… I will be back in the office by early afternoon and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
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